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Global Warming Limit of 1.5°C Still Possible but at Risk
Context:
At the TERI World Sustainable Development Summit on March 6, 2025, Jim Skea, the chairperson of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), shared a stark warning regarding the world’s ability to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
The Current Climate Reality
- Skea stated that while the aspiration to stay within this target is still theoretically possible, it is now “hanging by a slender thread.”
- Warming Exceeds 1.5°C: According to Skea, the world has already exceeded the 1.5°C warming threshold in 2024, entering a period where the risks of climate change are significantly heightened. This marks a troubling turning point in global efforts to control warming and limit its impacts.
- Critical Moment: The IPCC chair warned that, though the 1.5°C limit was still achievable under the “laws of chemistry and physics” at the time of the 2018 IPCC special report, the window for achieving this goal is now much narrower. The urgency to act has grown as the world faces increasing climate threats.
Possible Solutions to Mitigate the Crisis
- Skea highlighted several potential solutions to mitigate further risks and impacts:
- Renewable Energy: Shifting to renewable energy sources, particularly wind and solar power, is seen as a key strategy to reduce emissions and slow the pace of climate change.
- Adaptation and Resilience: In addition to reducing emissions, Skea emphasised the importance of adaptation strategies to minimise the risks of climate change, particularly in vulnerable regions.
The Paris Agreement and the Global Stocktake
- The summit coincided with the IPCC’s recent meeting in Hangzhou, China, where significant discussions were held about future climate action. The meeting and the upcoming IPCC reports aim to assess global progress on climate goals as set out in the Paris Climate Agreement.
- Paris Agreement’s Goals: Under the Paris Accords, nearly 200 countries committed to limiting global temperature rise to well below 2°C and aiming for 1.5°C.
- Current Status: According to the latest reports and global stocktake of climate action, the world is not on track to meet these critical targets. The IPCC’s synthesis report, which will integrate contributions from various working groups, is set to be released in the second half of 2029, offering a more comprehensive look at the state of the planet’s climate.
Political and Scientific Tensions
- Skea also addressed the intersection of science and politics, stating that while the IPCC remains a science-policy interface, it often finds itself caught in political debates.
- He emphasised that IPCC reports are based on scientific findings, but these findings sometimes intersect with political priorities and decisions, especially when it comes to actions needed to curb global warming.
Challenges Ahead
- Skea concluded his remarks by emphasising the pressing need for improved financial flows to support climate action, a goal outlined in the Paris Agreement. However, despite the critical nature of these goals—long-term temperature goals, adaptation and resilience, and finance flows—the latest IPCC reports and global evaluations suggest that current efforts are insufficient.
- The world’s path forward in limiting climate change remains fragile, and as the scientific community warns, the coming years will be crucial in determining whether humanity can still avoid the worst consequences of global warming.
