US Quest for a Strategic Trifecta in the Indian Ocean

Context:

Since the Cold War, the US has maintained strategic interests in the Indian Ocean, leveraging bases like Diego Garcia to protect oil routes and counter rivals, while regional initiatives like the ‘Zone of Peace’ limited overt militarisation. US focus intensified post-1995 with the revival of the Fifth Fleet to enhance power projection.

Cold War Era (Post-WWII to 1990s)

• Early Engagement: Formation of MIDEASTFOR (1949) to secure interests in the Gulf.
  • Establishment of the Fifth Fleet in Bahrain (1995) highlighted the Indian Ocean as a key maritime corridor.
• Power Vacuum Post-Decolonisation: British withdrawal created opportunities for US expansion, including Diego Garcia’s development as a strategic base.
• US-Soviet Rivalry: Indian Ocean became heavily nuclearised, with competing submarine deployments.
  • The 1971 Indo-Pakistani War and Soviet proximity to the Indian Ocean intensified tensions.
  • Carter Doctrine (1980) emphasised US military protection of Gulf interests.
• Zone of Peace Movements: Littoral states like Sri Lanka pushed against militarisation, limiting overt power projection.

Shift in Focus (1990s to Early 21st Century)

• Decline in Gulf Energy Dependence: Reduced oil reliance and instability in West Asia increased Indian Ocean’s strategic importance.
• Countering Chinese Influence: Focus on partnerships, especially with India, for maintaining a rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific.
• New Security Challenges: Piracy near Somalia led to multilateral efforts like the Combined Maritime Forces (CMF).
• Increased Regional Partnerships: Collaboration with allies like Australia, Japan, and India on disaster relief and maritime security.

Indo-Pacific Integration (21st Century)

• Economic and Strategic Connectivity: The Indian Ocean is central to global trade, linking key manufacturing hubs to Western markets.
• Collaborative Strategy: Shift from direct military intervention to shaping regional architecture through partnerships.
  • India positioned as a key player in countering Chinese assertiveness.
• US Strategic Framework: Focus on freedom of navigation, maritime security, and sustainable blue economies.
  • Partnerships emphasise shared interests and regional autonomy.

Challenges and Competition

• China’s Naval Expansion: China’s navy surpassed the US in ship numbers (370 in 2020; 435 by 2030).
  • PLAN’s ability to challenge US dominance in the Western Pacific raises concerns.
• Transnational Issues: Nuclear proliferation, terrorism, and unresolved territorial disputes persist in the Indian Ocean littorals.

Strategic Initiatives

• Infrastructure and Development: Alternatives to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), such as the Blue Dot Network and the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework.
• Defence Cooperation: Foundational agreements with India (LEMOA, COMCASA, BECA) bolster intelligence sharing and joint capabilities.
• Maritime Security Focus: Multilateral efforts (e.g., Indian Ocean Naval Symposium) address piracy, peacekeeping, and disaster response.

Recent Developments (Trump and Biden Administrations)

• Trump Era: Enhanced focus on India as a regional leader.
  • Budget cuts to South Asia aid shifted priorities towards countering Chinese influence in the Bay of Bengal.
• Biden Era: Continued Indo-Pacific focus, despite challenges like COVID-19 and global conflicts.
  • Efforts to secure supply chains and counterbalance China through infrastructure and technology partnerships.

Future Prospects

• Indo-Pacific Strategy: Integration of Indian Ocean into a broader framework for stability and economic growth.
  • Strategic emphasis on countering authoritarian influences while maintaining regional sovereignty.
• Great-Power Competition: Growing debate on reactivating a dedicated US fleet for the Indian Ocean.
  • Strengthened US-India partnership underscores India’s pivotal role in regional security.

Indian Ocean Region Strategic Review Act of 2024

• Purpose: Defines the IOR as including the Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal, and surrounding littoral areas.
  • Frames the IOR as critical for addressing US-China competition.
• Strategic Objectives: Counter China’s energy-driven expansion and military activities in the IOR.
  • Strengthen ties with regional partners like India and allies such as Japan, Australia, the UK, and France.
  • Enhance economic connectivity, protect trade routes, and address piracy and illegal fishing.
  • Promote disaster response and infrastructure resilience.
• Policy Actions: Support regional cooperation through organisations and bilateral agreements.
  • Align US diplomatic, defense, and development agencies for effective implementation.

Changing Role of US Combatant Commands

• Historical Context: US naval presence in the IOR began with MIDEASTFOR (1949) and expanded to NAVCENT (1983) and the Fifth Fleet.
• Evolving Threats: Distinct threats in the IOR (e.g., piracy, regional instability) versus the Pacific.
  • Ongoing focus on the Persian Gulf due to Middle Eastern security spillovers.
• Key Partnerships: India’s pivotal role in search-and-rescue and counter-piracy efforts.
  • Enhanced collaboration with allies for crisis response and maritime security.
• Shifting Priorities: Increased scrutiny of China’s activities near the Strait of Malacca and Eastern Indian Ocean.
  • Reinforcement of US presence at Diego Garcia and partnerships in Australia and Mauritius.

Strategic Transition: From Dominance to Shared Leadership

• Partnership-Driven Approach: Shift from unilateral dominance to shared leadership with regional stakeholders like India.
  • Emphasis on a rules-based order and adherence to UNCLOS to counter China’s grey-zone tactics.
• Minilateral Frameworks: Collaborative groups such as Quad, JAI (Japan-America-India), and the France-India-UAE partnership.
  • Focus on economic connectivity, resilient supply chains, and security cooperation.
• Technology-Driven Strategy: Joint initiatives with India (e.g., iCET) to enhance ISR, critical technology sharing, and infrastructure development.

Challenges and Opportunities

• Balancing Commitments: US avoids deep strategic entanglements to reduce regional resistance.
  • India-US differences on issues like Chagos Archipelago reflect broader Global South concerns.
• Economic Integration: Leverage initiatives like I2U2 and IMEEC for trans-regional connectivity.
  • Collaborate on blue economy potential and ASEAN centrality.
• US-China Rivalry: Indian Ocean as a secondary arena of competition, with the Pacific remaining primary.
  • Regional leadership and multilateralism preferred over additional US bases.

Policy Recommendations

• Strengthen economic integration via resilient supply chains and blue economy initiatives.
• Advocate UNCLOS ratification to reinforce commitment to maritime rules.
• Collaborate with regional stakeholders to maintain stability and counterbalance China’s influence.
• Enhance technological and maritime partnerships with India and other key allies.