Font size:
Print
China’s Brahmaputra Dam Project
Context:
Beijing recently approved the construction of the world’s largest hydropower dam on the Brahmaputra River (Yarlung Tsangpo in Tibet), close to the Indian border.
More on News:
- It will not only enhance energy generation but also raise significant ecological and geopolitical concerns in South Asia.
- India’s apprehensions over potential ecological and strategic ramifications are rooted in the critical hydropolitical dynamics with its neighbour Bangladesh and the concept of “Water Wars,” articulated by geostrategist Brahma Chellaney.
Strategic thinker Brahma Chellaney has long argued that water is emerging as a critical resource in geopolitical conflicts, particularly in Asia, where many rivers cross national boundaries. In his seminal work, Water: Asia’s New Battleground, Chellaney warns of the rise of “water wars” as nations compete for control over shared rivers.
Overview of the Project:
- Location: Medog County, Tibet, at the Great Bend of the Brahmaputra River (Yarlung Tsangpo in Tibet).
- Estimated Cost: $137 billion (₹11.69 lakh crore).
- Capacity: Projected to generate up to 60 GW of electricity annually, three times the output of the Three Gorges Dam on the Yangtze River.
- Strategic Significance: Part of China’s 14th Five-Year Plan and a broader strategy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.
Why Is China Building This Dam?
- Environmental Sustainability: The dam will contribute to China’s renewable energy targets by generating 300 billion kWh annually, addressing energy shortages in northern and eastern provinces.
- Regional Development: The project is expected to boost Tibet’s economy, creating jobs and improving infrastructure. It also enhances national security by allowing China to manage water resources and ensure energy independence.
Concerns Raised:
- India has continually emphasised the necessity for transparency and consultation with downstream countries before undertaking such massive infrastructure projects.
- The dam’s location in the ecologically fragile Himalayan gorge raises fears of natural disasters (including earthquakes and landslides) impacting millions of people in Arunachal Pradesh and Assam states of India, as well as downstream in Bangladesh.
- Indian experts also worry that the dam could give China the ability to manipulate water flows during periods of drought or flooding, potentially weaponising water as a geopolitical tool.
India’s Countermeasures:
- Hydropower Projects: India has planned a 10 GW hydropower project on the Siang River in Arunachal Pradesh to counterbalance China’s dam, though local opposition and environmental concerns complicate its execution.
- Expert Level Mechanism (ELM): India has established a mechanism with China for hydrological data-sharing to manage water flows, especially during flood seasons. However, the suspension of data-sharing during the 2017 Doklam stand-off highlighted the limitations of this arrangement.
Hydropolitics Between India and Bangladesh:
- Shared Dependency on the Brahmaputra: As lower riparian states, both India and Bangladesh depend heavily on the Brahmaputra for agriculture, drinking water, and hydropower.
- The potential alteration of water flows due to China’s upstream activities threatens water security and the delicate ecological balance of the region.
- Existing Water-Sharing Arrangements: India and Bangladesh have an agreement on the 1996 Ganges River water-sharing treaty, but the Brahmaputra lacks a similar comprehensive framework.
- Bangladesh has repeatedly expressed concerns over unilateral water diversion by India, and China’s new dam project adds another layer of complexity.
Strategic Responses for India:
- Regional Cooperation: Strengthening ties with Bangladesh and promoting a regional water-sharing treaty with China that guarantees equitable access to the Brahmaputra’s resources.
- International Advocacy: India should champion fair trans-boundary river governance on global platforms like the United Nations to ensure sustainable management of shared water resources.
- Infrastructure Development: India should expedite the development of dams and flood control infrastructure on the Brahmaputra’s tributaries to bolster its own capacity to manage water resources.
- Diplomatic Efforts: India must engage in diplomatic pressure to negotiate reliable hydrological data-sharing agreements with China.
