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India’s Declining School Enrolment
Context:
As the world’s most populous nation, India has long anticipated the benefits of its demographic dividend, driven by a growing youth population.
Demographic dividend refers to economic growth resulting from a shift in a country’s population age structure, typically marked by a decline in fertility and mortality rates. This shift leads to a larger proportion of the population being of working age (15-64 years), relative to the dependent non-working age group.
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- However, demographers and policymakers have always recognised that this window of opportunity would be temporary.
- Now, a steady decline in school enrollment over the past decade indicates that this period may be coming to an end.
- If this trend continues, India risks aging before achieving widespread economic prosperity.
Alarming Drop in School Enrolment
- The recently released Unified District Information System for Education Plus (U-DISE+) data for 2022-23 and 2023-24 has raised serious concerns.
- According to figures published by the Ministry of Education on December 30, 2024, school enrolment has declined by 15.5 million (6%) since 2018-19.
- While official sources attribute this drop to improved data collection methods—such as Aadhaar-based enrolment verification, which eliminates duplicate records—long-term trends suggest a deeper issue.
- The data points to a structural transition that could mark the beginning of the end of India’s demographic dividend.
- Over the past decade, school enrolment has plummeted by 24.51 million, a 9.45% decline.
- The elementary level, which has been covered under the Right to Education (RTE) Act since 2009, witnessed the most significant drop—18.7 million students, or 13.45%.
- Meanwhile, secondary-level enrolment fell by 1.43 million (3.75%), while senior secondary-level enrolment increased by 3.63 million (15.46%).
- This suggests that the downward trend began relatively recently.
Government vs. Private School Enrolment Trends
- Government: Government and government-aided schools, which serve over 65% of India’s students—particularly from marginalised communities—have been the hardest hit.
- Enrolment in government schools dropped by 19.89 million (13.8%), while government-aided schools saw a steeper decline of 4.95 million (16.41%).
- At the elementary level, enrolment in government schools fell by 21.78 million (18.31%) and by 3.85 million (24.34%) in government-aided institutions.
- Secondary-level enrolment also saw declines, albeit at a lower rate.
- Private: In contrast, private unaided schools have shown resilience, with overall enrolment rising by 1.61 million (2.03%).
- However, this increase is primarily due to a surge in senior secondary-level admissions (up by 1.41 million or 15.55%), while elementary and secondary-level enrolment showed only marginal growth.
- This suggests that private institutions have not been entirely immune to the broader demographic shift.
Demographic Shifts as the Key Factor
- The decline in school enrolment is neither a temporary anomaly nor solely a result of data collection improvements.
- Instead, it reflects a deeper demographic transition.
- The school-age population (6-17 years) has declined by 17.30 million (5.78%) over the past decade.
- Within this, the 6-13 age group—critical for elementary education—has decreased by 18.7 million (9.12%), while the 14-15 age group (secondary education) has shrunk by 2.17 million (4.35%).
- A statistical analysis indicates a strong correlation between school enrolment and the population of school-age children, with demographic changes accounting for 60.36% of the decline.
- This trend is further supported by a reduction in the number of schools nationwide—from 1.55 million in 2017-18 to 1.47 million in 2023-24, a 5.1% drop.
- India’s fertility rate has also played a role.
- At 2.01 in 2022—below the replacement level of 2.10—the declining birth rate is a key factor in the shrinking school-age population.
Long-Term Implications and Economic Consequences
- A growing youth population has been essential for India’s economic growth, fueling education, employment, and productivity.
- However, the country is now entering a phase where its demographic advantage is shifting.
- Most developed countries have already faced this transition.
- However, in India’s case, the shift is occurring much earlier than expected.
- This raises concerns about whether the country will fully capitalise on its demographic dividend before aging sets in.
The decline in school enrolment is more than just a statistical trend—it is a warning signal that requires urgent policy attention. If the upcoming 2021 Census (delayed due to the pandemic) confirms these demographic shifts, India must prepare for the long-term economic and social consequences.
