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Costs of Population Decline
Context:
Recently, the Chief Ministers of both Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu voiced concerns about the low fertility rates in their states.
More on News:
- Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N. Chandrababu Naidu announced plans to introduce legislation aimed at encouraging families to have more children.
Current Demographic Situation (Especially in the Southern States):
- Recognition: After decades of family planning initiatives aimed at slowing population growth, India is now recognising that these efforts have also contributed to an ageing population.
- Demographic Shift: This demographic shift isn’t uniform across the country; southern States and some smaller northern States have seen a sharper decline in total fertility rates (TFR), which is the average number of children born to a woman during her reproductive years.
- Data from the Office of the Registrar General of India shows that Tamil Nadu and West Bengal recorded a TFR of 1.4 between 2019 and 2021, while Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Kerala, Punjab, and Himachal Pradesh had TFRs of 1.5.
- Conversely, states like Bihar (3), Uttar Pradesh (2.7), and Madhya Pradesh (2.6) had much higher fertility rates.
- Challenges: States with lower fertility rates generally developed faster but are now facing challenges from a rapidly ageing population.
- The India Ageing Report published by UNFPA last year, using Health Ministry data, indicates that India’s elderly population share is projected to increase from 10.1% in 2021 to 15% by 2036.
- Kerala’s senior citizens made up 16.5% of the population in 2021 and are expected to reach 22.8% by 2036; Tamil Nadu’s elderly are projected to comprise 20.8% by 2036, and Andhra Pradesh’s 19%.
- By contrast, Bihar had only 7.7% elderly in 2021, projected to increase to 11% by 2036.
Economic Impact:
- Old Age Dependency Ratio: It is the number of elderly people for every 100 individuals of working age (18 to 59 years). An ageing crisis emerges when this ratio exceeds 15%.
- According to National Commission on Population projections, several states have already crossed this threshold: Kerala had an old age dependency ratio of 26.1 in 2021, Tamil Nadu 20.5, Himachal Pradesh 19.6, and Andhra Pradesh 18.5. For these states, the demographic dividend from a young workforce has passed.
- Health Expenditures: Health expenditures are expected to rise substantially in states with ageing populations.
- A study on demographic diversity by Tulane University’s K.S. James and IIPS scholar Shubhra Kriti, published in The India Forum, showed that southern States, with just one-fifth of India’s population, accounted for 32% of the nation’s out-of-pocket spending on cardiovascular diseases in 2017-18.
- Meanwhile, eight Hindi belt states, comprising half the population, contributed only 24%.
- Workforce Participation: The proposed solution of increasing fertility rates may also have unintended economic consequences, as it could lower women’s participation in the workforce, which would negatively affect these states’ economies.
- Diminished Resources: Southern leaders have argued to the Finance Commission that while their strong economies contribute more tax revenue to the central pool, their slower population growth means they receive a diminishing share of central resources.
Political Implications:
- Federalism: The uneven growth in population is likely to impact India’s federal structure.
- With the freeze on the number of seats in Parliament set to expire in 2026, a new delimitation exercise will likely alter the representation of states in the Lok Sabha.
- Gain: A study by James and Kriti estimated that Uttar Pradesh may gain 12 seats, Bihar 10, and Rajasthan 7.
- Lose: In contrast, Tamil Nadu could lose 9 seats, Kerala 6, and Andhra Pradesh 5, due to their lower share in the national population.
What are the Solutions being Considered?
- Pro-Natalist Policies: Southern Chief Ministers appear to be promoting pro-natalist policies, incentivising women to have more children.
- Internationally, this approach has not been very successful. Educated women are aware that they are not simply reproductive machines, and forced fertility won’t work; nor will incentives that ignore families’ actual needs.
- Improved Work-Family Policies: This includes paid maternity and paternity leaves, accessible childcare, and employment policies to reduce the “motherhood penalty.”
- Gender Equity: Countries and states with stronger gender equity tend to maintain sustainable fertility rates, as women are more likely to have children when it doesn’t restrict their economic independence.
- More Working Lifespan: Another approach involves extending the working lifespan, thereby reducing the old age dependency ratio.
- Economic Migrants: Southern states already attract economic migrants. However, experts point out that while these migrants rely on social security services in the states they work in, they continue to be counted in their home states for political and financial distribution purposes.
- This creates a complex issue for southern states.
