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Trump and Multilateralism
Context:
As the world gears up for a series of high-profile multilateral summits—the climate change conference in Azerbaijan, the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum in Peru, and the G20 summit in Brazil—a profound shift in global governance is unfolding.
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- These gatherings, intended to tackle shared challenges, are overshadowed by the re-election of Donald Trump as U.S. President.
- This shift could push countries like India to rethink their roles within multilateral frameworks that have faced mounting strain over the past decade.
- As Trump’s return signals a potential deepening of the “America First” approach, nations may need to look beyond traditional multilateral institutions to address global issues effectively.
The First Term of Trump: Unravelling the Multilateral Order:
- Departure: Trump’s first term (2017-2021) marked a pivotal departure from the traditional U.S. commitment to global leadership through multilateralism.
- Unilateralism: Emphasising unilateralism over collective action, the Trump administration withdrew the U.S. from numerous international agreements, including the Paris Agreement on climate change, the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), UNESCO, WHO, and the UN Human Rights Council (UNHRC).
- Sovereignty: In doing so, Trump signalled a departure from the liberal internationalist vision that had underpinned U.S. foreign policy for decades, stressing national sovereignty over globalism in his 2017 United Nations speech.
- Anti-Globalisation: With Trump’s return, this anti-globalist sentiment has gained strength and is likely to influence his approach to multilateral cooperation in his second term.
- Climate Action: Trump’s stance may also embolden other countries to scale back their climate commitments, raising concerns about the future of international climate action.
Biden’s Multilateral Revival and Trump’s Resurgence:
- Under Biden, the U.S. rejoined the Paris Accord, the WHO, and UNESCO, signalling a partial return to traditional international cooperation.
- Now, as Trump reassumes the presidency, a strong backlash against globalism persists.
The Role of APEC Amid Sino-U.S. Tensions:
- Central Position: The APEC forum, established during an era of cooperation between the U.S. and China, now finds itself at the heart of escalating tensions between these two superpowers.
- Asia-Pacific: Trump’s first term saw the U.S. withdraw from the TPP, a cornerstone of Obama’s Asia-Pacific strategy aimed at fostering economic integration across the Pacific.
- IPEF: The Biden administration sought to re-engage the region through the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), focusing on digital trade, supply chain resilience, and clean energy.
- However, unlike the TPP, the IPEF avoids binding commitments on market access, reflecting a more cautious approach.
- Trade Tensions: Whether Trump will support the IPEF remains uncertain, but his proposed 60 percent tariffs on Chinese imports suggest a likely intensification of the U.S.-China trade conflict.
- Additionally, his administration is expected to scrutinise China’s expanding influence in Latin America.
G20: A Test of Relevance Amid Global Divides:
- Deepening Divides: The G20, created in response to the 2008 financial crisis, faces challenges in remaining relevant amid deepening geopolitical and economic divides.
- Clash of Interests: Trump’s first term was marked by clashes within the G20 on issues such as trade, climate, and migration.
- Corporate Tax: Although the Biden administration managed to secure a landmark global corporate tax agreement, tensions over climate action, financial reform, and development priorities continue to weigh on the forum’s progress.
- Opportunity for India: For India, which has invested considerable diplomatic capital in multilateralism and the G20, the upcoming summit represents an opportunity to evaluate the forum’s effectiveness.
The Rise of Minilateralism: India’s Strategic Shift:
- Declined Trust: The era of peak multilateralism that characterised the early 21st century now appears to be in decline, driven by political divisions and diminishing trust in collective solutions.
- Adaptation: While globalists lament this transition, India’s policymakers are focusing on adapting to the evolving dynamics of international relations.
- Alternative Arrangements: The growing unlikelihood of multilateral solutions to global problems has spurred India to invest in alternative arrangements, including the development of national renewable energy solutions and bilateral trade deals.
- Minilateral Groups: India is also engaging in alliances among like-minded countries to address shared regional and global challenges.
- These initiatives include the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), the Mineral Security Partnership, the Global Partnership on Artificial Intelligence, and the Artemis Accords, all of which aim to establish new global norms and foster technological innovation.
- As multilateralism faces growing challenges, India and other nations are increasingly turning to smaller, agile coalitions and bilateral initiatives to address global issues. While collective solutions remain essential, these “minilateral” alliances will likely guide international cooperation for now.
