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The Delimitation Dilemma in India
Context:
The upcoming delimitation of parliamentary constituencies in India has become a focal point in national debates. This complex process has far-reaching implications, particularly on the balance of power within India’s federal structure.
- Delimitation impacts not only the distribution of Lok Sabha seats but also the representation of states based on their population. With a 2029 deadline looming, India faces critical choices that could reshape its political landscape.
What is Delimitation and Its Constitutional Basis?
- Delimitation is the redrawing of electoral boundaries to reflect changes in population and ensure equal representation.
- Article 82 of the Indian Constitution mandates that the number of Lok Sabha seats per state be recalibrated after each Census, managed by the Delimitation Commission. The objective is to maintain equitable representation across states in proportion to their population.
The Delimitation Commission: Its Mandate and Legal Foundation
Historical Timeline of Delayed Delimitation in India
Delimitation has been postponed twice in India’s history, both by leaders aware of its potential to disrupt federal harmony:
- 1976: Under Indira Gandhi, the delimitation process was suspended to prevent penalising states that had effectively controlled their populations.
- 2001: The A.B. The Vajpayee administration extended the suspension, setting the next delimitation deadline to 2026.
These extensions reflected concerns over significant population disparities across states and the potential impact on federal balance.
- Statutory Body: The Delimitation Commission is a statutory body established under the Delimitation Act and functions under the guidance of the Constitution and legal frameworks.
- The commission’s mandate includes:
- Redrawing boundaries based on population figures from the most recent Census.
- Ensuring fair representation for each state in the Lok Sabha by adjusting the number of seats according to demographic changes.
- This body has the authority to make legally binding decisions to ensure the balance of representation is updated according to constitutional requirements.The Need for Delimitation Before the 2029 Elections:
- For Effective Representation: With India’s population now substantially higher than it was during the last Census-based delimitation in 1971, representation in the Lok Sabha no longer accurately reflects demographic realities.
- The current government has hinted at undertaking delimitation before the 2029 elections to address these discrepancies. A recalibration could better represent states with growing populations but also presents significant challenges.
Challenges to Delimitation Before 2029:
The decision to proceed with delimitation raises several concerns, particularly under the present political climate:
- Threat to Federalism: Federalism is a core principle of the Indian Constitution, emphasising the autonomy and equal standing of states. Delimitation risks upsetting this balance by increasing representation in populous Hindi-speaking states, potentially reducing the influence of other states, particularly in the South, which have effectively controlled their populations.
- Impact on Non-Hindi States: States like Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and West Bengal, with low Total Fertility Rates (TFRs), could lose representation, while states with higher TFRs, such as Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, could gain seats. This shift may erode the voice of non-Hindi states, weakening their say in national policy and representation in the Union government.
Potential Impact of Delimitation:
- Skewed Representation: A recalibrated seat distribution would likely benefit Hindi-speaking states, where the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has significant support. If the seat share of Southern states drops from 25% to 17%, and Hindi-speaking states rise from 40% to 60%, this could create a permanent regional imbalance.
- Economic Disparities: Non-Hindi states currently contribute a larger share to India’s GDP than their population proportion, while Hindi-speaking states contribute less. Delimitation may create a scenario where revenue-contributing states have limited say over Union expenditures, risking alienation of economically powerful states.
- Erosion of Linguistic and Cultural Diversity: India’s diversity is a fundamental strength. A major shift in political power towards Hindi-speaking states risks marginalising other languages and cultures, potentially destabilising the country’s multi-ethnic fabric.
Possible Solutions and the Way Forward:
To address these issues, several solutions have been proposed, aiming to balance fair representation with federal integrity:
- Extend the Freeze on Delimitation: Following the approach of past leaders, the government could delay delimitation for another 25 years. This would allow time to consider the implications more thoroughly and avoid immediate disruptions.
- Permanent Freeze on Inter-State Redistribution: A permanent freeze on the redistribution of seats across states could maintain stable representation, though this might prevent necessary adjustments as population patterns evolve.
- Implement Delimitation with a Strengthened Federal Structure: Moving forward with delimitation while restructuring federal powers could mitigate some adverse effects.
- Increase Total Seats in the Lok Sabha: Rather than changing the proportion of seats across states, India could expand the total number of seats. This would allow increased representation for states with growing populations while preserving a stable balance of influence across regions.
