Bangladesh Over-reliance on China
Changing Dynamics of Bangladesh and China and Their Implications on India
Bangladesh’s defence cooperation with China has transitioned from minimal engagement to a robust strategic alliance over recent decades. China now supplies approximately two-thirds of Bangladesh’s military imports, including submarines, fighter jets, and naval assets. Joint exercises, infrastructure projects (e.g., BNS Sheikh Hasina submarine base), and officer training programmes further solidify this partnership.
Drivers of Defence Preferences:
- Dhaka’s reliance on Chinese arms stems from cost efficiency, streamlined procurement processes, and historical familiarity with Chinese systems (dating to pre-1971 ties with Pakistan).
- Recent political instability, including leadership transitions, has intensified Bangladesh’s pursuit of military modernisation through Chinese support to ensure regime stability.
Operational Challenges and Quality Concerns:
Despite the partnership, Bangladesh’s armed forces have raised issues regarding substandard equipment, including defects and operational limitations. These concerns highlight potential risks in long-term dependency on Chinese military technology.
Geopolitical Motivations and Regional Balancing:
Bangladesh views deepened ties with China as a means to assert sovereignty and counter perceived threats from neighbours like India and Myanmar. Concurrently, China aims to diminish Indian influence in South Asia and secure strategic access to the Bay of Bengal, enhancing its regional dominance.
India’s Strategic Dilemma:
- Security Concerns: Increased Chinese military presence near India’s eastern borders challenges New Delhi’s regional security framework.
- Diplomatic Repercussions: India’s efforts to block Bangladesh’s access to Western arms (e.g., F-16 jets) have inadvertently strengthened Dhaka-Beijing ties, eroding India’s diplomatic leverage.
- Military Recalibration: Bangladesh’s acquisition of advanced Chinese platforms (e.g., J-10C jets) may compel India to reassess defence strategies along its eastern frontier.
- Policy Recommendations: India could counterbalance China’s influence by offering competitive defence partnerships and economic incentives to Bangladesh.
- Historical Context: Diplomatic relations between China and Bangladesh began in January 1976, shortly after Sheikh Mujibur Rahman’s assassination, laying the groundwork for today’s defence-centric alliance. This evolution poses multifaceted challenges for India’s regional strategy.
