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Ukraine Incursion into Russia’s Kursk Region
Context:
Ukrainian troops have advanced around 30 km into the Russian territory of the Kursk region, in what has been Kyiv’s largest incursion on Moscow’s territory since the start of the war in 2022.
Strategy of Ukraine Challenges for Ukraine 
Reasons for Ukraine’s attack on Russia:
- Leverage in Peace Talks: Ukrainians may view successful military operations on Russian soil as a way to enhance Ukraine’s leverage in future peace talks.
- Shifting the Balance of Power: Ukraine’s successful strikes within Russian territory challenge Russia’s control narrative and question its border defences and military readiness.
- Possible that Ukraine wants to capture the Kursk nuclear power plant as a payback for Russia’s seizure of Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant — it has been under Moscow’s control since 2022. The Kursk nuclear plant is just 60 km away from the Ukrainian border.
- Gaining tactical advantage: Ukraine aims to disrupt Russian operations and divert focus from its eastern offensive, particularly in Donbas. The goal is to stretch Russian resources and attention, potentially weakening their front-line positions.
- Psychological and global sympathy: Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the surprise attack, launched on August 6, was being carried out to “restore justice” and “push the war into the aggressor’s territory”.
Impact of the Incursion:
Geopolitical Impact:
- Escalation of Conflict: The attack significantly escalates the conflict, raising concerns about a broader regional or global conflict.
- Belarus’ Response: Belarus announced it was sending more troops to its border with Ukraine on Saturday.
- Challenges to Russia’s Territorial Integrity: Ukraine’s deep strikes challenge Russia’s control narrative and raise doubts about its border defences and military readiness.
- Potential Shift in Power Dynamics:Continued successful operations by Ukraine could shift regional power dynamics, pressuring Russia to reassess its strategy and objectives.
Geostrategic Impact:
- Diversion of Russian Military Resources: Russia may need to divert resources to secure its borders, weakening its positions in eastern Ukraine.
- Potential for Retaliation: Russia has promised “appropriate reaction” (as it has alleged foreign backing) which could escalate the conflict and increase casualties.
- Implications for NATO: The attack could affect Western military support for Ukraine and impact NATO security.
Geoeconomic Impact:
- Sanctions and Economic Isolation: The incursion may lead to increased sanctions, worsening Russia’s economic strain.
- Disruption of Trade and Supply Chains: The conflict could disrupt regional trade and supply chains.
- Volatility in Energy and Commodity Markets: Increased geopolitical risks may lead to market volatility.
Humanitarian Impact:
- Civilian Displacement: Around 121,000 civilians have been evacuated, disrupting lives in border areas.
- Loss of Life: The attack has caused 12 deaths and 121 injuries, with potential for further casualties.
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India’s Response to Ukraine’s Incursion into Russia’s Kursk Region:
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