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Climate Crisis: Escalating Threats & Urgent Solutions
Context:
According to the report by World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), there is an 80% chance that the world will temporarily cross the 1.5 degree Celsius threshold in the next five years.
Key Findings:
- Between 2024 and 2028 will see its average temperature exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, a first in history.
- This prediction is up from a 66% chance just a year ago.
- A long-term breach would accelerate and intensify the catastrophic impacts of climate change.
- May 2024 was the warmest May on record.
- The average global temperature last month was 1.5 degrees Celsius above the estimated May average for the pre-industrial period of 1850-1900.
- Over the 12-month period from June 2023 to May 2024, the average temperature was 1.63 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average.
- Despite these alarming trends, surpassing the commonly discussed 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold would require sustained warming over a longer period, typically with a two or three-decade average taken into account.
What is the 1.5 degree Celsius threshold?
- Paris Agreement (2015): 195 countries pledged to limit global temperatures to “well below” 2°C above pre-industrial levels by century’s end.
- Aimed to curb warming within a safer 1.5°C limit.
- Pre-industrial baseline: considered 1850-1900.
- Industrial Revolution (mid-1700s): Marked start of anthropogenic global warming.
How can the world stay within the threshold?
- 2023: Warmest year on record, +1.45°C above pre-industrial levels, partly due to El Niño, Transition from El Niño to La Niña likely.
- Temporary breach of 1.5°C limit expected in next 5 years (2024-2028), with predicted increases of 1.1°C to 1.9°C.
- Only sure way to stay under threshold: Immediately and radically cut greenhouse gas emissions.
- Need to cease burning fossil fuels like coal, oil, and gas to curb emissions.
- GHG levels in the atmosphere hit historic highs in 2023; CO2 rose significantly.
- The UN Secretary-General calls for urgent action to avoid climate catastrophe, emphasising human control over the situation.
Why 1.5 degree Celsius?
- 1.5°C set as a “defence line” to avoid disastrous, irreversible effects of climate change, a limit chosen based on a fact-finding report.
- Breaching the threshold could lead to high risks for “some regions and vulnerable ecosystems” over decades.
- Even smaller spikes could be catastrophic for some regions.
What happens when the threshold is breached?
- Five major climate tipping points at risk of being crossed due to warming, leading to irreversible damage.
- Tipping points categorised into cryosphere, ocean-atmosphere, and biosphere changes.
- Breaching the 1.5°C threshold increases and accelerates impacts like sea level rise, floods, droughts, and wildfires.
- Lowering the temperature target reduces climate risks.
- Recent events show impacts: India’s May month heatwave, causing deaths.
- NOAA: High ocean temps trigger fourth global mass coral bleaching event, threatening ocean life and millions relying on reefs.
- El Niño contributed to 2023’s record-breaking temperatures, showing natural variations’ influence.