Global Warming and Its Impact on Weather Forecasting: The Path to Reliable Predictions
This essay, based on Professor Raghu Murtugudde’s article “How Global Warming Affects Forecasting” (The Hindu, September 26, 2024), highlights how global warming is altering weather patterns and complicating forecasts, especially for cyclones, monsoons, and El Niño, despite technological advancements, requiring meteorologists to improve models, use new data, and collaborate globally.
Introduction
As the world warms, weather patterns are changing in unpredictable ways. This makes forecasting much more difficult for meteorologists. Before, scientists could rely on weather patterns that had been observed over many years. Now, however, those patterns are changing. Global warming is causing more extreme weather events like cyclones, monsoons, and heatwaves, which are becoming harder to predict. Scientists are trying to improve their forecasting models, but the changing climate is creating new challenges. This essay discusses how global warming is affecting weather prediction and what scientists are doing to improve forecasting accuracy.
Global Warming and Weather Prediction
Global warming is making weather harder to predict because it changes long-established patterns. For example, hotter air holds more moisture, which affects how much rain will fall. Extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, cyclones, and floods, are becoming more frequent. These events are also becoming stronger and more unpredictable. This makes it difficult for weather models to keep up. Many models used to predict the weather and climate struggle with these changes because they were based on past patterns that no longer hold true.
Adding to the challenge is the speed at which the climate is warming. The Earth has already warmed by over 1.5°C since the pre-industrial period, and this rapid warming is creating a more chaotic weather system. Predictions that once seemed reliable are now less certain. For example, the Indian monsoon, which is vital for agriculture, has become harder to predict. In some places, it rains too little, causing droughts, while in others, it rains too much, causing floods. Weather models struggle to predict where and when these extremes will happen. As a result, scientists need to constantly update their models to keep up with these changes.
Changes in Cyclone Predictability
Global warming is also making cyclones more intense and harder to predict. Warmer ocean temperatures fuel cyclones, making them stronger. Scientists expect that cyclone intensity could increase by up to 10% as the climate warms. This means that when cycloness do form, they are likely to cause more damage. Another challenge is the phenomenon of rapid intensification, where a cyclone suddenly becomes much stronger in a short period. This has been happening more often since the 1980s, and it is very difficult to predict.
While some scientists think that the number of cyclones may decrease overall, they also believe that there will be more powerful cyclones, such as Category 4 or 5 storms. These storms can cause massive destruction, and it is difficult to know where they will form and how strong they will become. The uncertainty around cyclone predictions is a major concern for scientists, especially as climate change continues to influence weather systems.
The Impact on El Niño and Other Climate Patterns
Climate change is also affecting large-scale patterns like El Niño and La Niña. El Niño and La Niña are phases of the ENSO cycle that impact global ocean temperatures and weather patterns. El Niño warms central and eastern Pacific waters, weakening trade winds and bringing heavy rains to Peru and Ecuador while causing droughts in South Asia, Southeast Asia and Australia. La Niña, on the other hand, cools these waters, strengthening trade winds, leading to drier conditions in South America, increased rainfall in Australia, Southeast Asia and South Asia, and more active Atlantic cyclone seasons. However, global warming is making it harder to predict when and how these patterns will occur.
Scientists are concerned that as the climate warms, El Niño events might become stronger and more extreme. This would make it even harder to predict their impacts. The models used to forecast these events often have difficulty simulating changes in ocean temperatures in a warming world. This uncertainty also affects predictions for other climate patterns, such as the Indian Ocean Dipole, which influences weather in countries around the Indian Ocean.
Challenges in Predicting Monsoons
Monsoons are critical for countries like India, where agriculture depends on seasonal rains. However, predicting monsoons has always been a challenge, and global warming is making it even harder. Many weather models are unable to accurately predict how much rain will fall during the monsoon season. This is partly because monsoons depend on complex interactions between the oceans and the atmosphere. As global temperatures rise, these interactions are changing, making predictions more difficult.
For example, in recent years, there have been several failures in predicting the Indian monsoon. This has happened because the models have not been able to capture new factors, such as changes in pressure systems over Asia or unusual warming in the Pacific Ocean. Moreover, scientists do not have enough data about key factors like soil moisture, dust, and aerosols, which are all important for making accurate predictions. Another challenge is the lack of weather stations in some areas and the need for better technology, such as supercomputers, to process complex weather data.
Volcanic Eruptions and Their Role in Weather Patterns
Volcanic eruptions are another factor that can affect weather patterns, making them even more difficult to predict. For example, the eruption of the Hunga Tonga volcano in 2022 released large amounts of water vapor into the atmosphere. This extra water vapor can contribute to global warming by trapping more heat in the atmosphere. Unlike sulfate aerosols, which tend to cool the planet, water vapor has a warming effect.
The eruption added about 5% more water vapor to the stratosphere, which could slightly increase global temperatures for several years. This extra heat and moisture can lead to more intense storms and heavy rainfall. Volcanic eruptions can also affect monsoon patterns, although the exact effects depend on the timing and location of the eruption. This creates additional challenges for weather models, which often struggle to incorporate the impacts of volcanic aerosols on weather patterns.
Learning from the Extremes of 2023 and 2024
The record warming experienced in 2023 and 2024 has provided scientists with more insight into how global warming affects weather. These years saw a wide range of extreme weather events, from deadly heatwaves to severe floods. Some of these events were much more intense than predicted. For example, meteorologists forecasted the 2023 El Niño, but they were surprised by how much warmer it was than expected. Scientists believe that this extreme warmth was worsened by water vapor from the Hunga Tonga volcanic eruption and carbon dioxide emissions from wildfires.
The unpredictability of the 2023 monsoon season was another example of how difficult it is becoming to forecast weather in a warming world. Although meteorologists predicted a deficit monsoon, they were not able to diagnose all the reasons why the rainfall patterns varied so much. As a result, the Indian monsoon left some areas dry while causing floods in others. These unpredictable weather patterns are reminders that even with the best technology, forecasting will continue to be challenging as global warming progresses.
Improving Weather Forecasting Capabilities
Despite the challenges posed by global warming, there is hope for the future of weather forecasting. Scientists are using new technologies like artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning to improve the accuracy of their predictions. These tools can analyse vast amounts of data and detect patterns that humans might miss. This is helping meteorologists make better short-term predictions, such as forecasting storms or floods a few days in advance.
Some countries are also making progress in improving their weather prediction systems. For example, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has upgraded its models for predicting cyclones and short-term weather events. These new models give more detailed forecasts and help the IMD improve its accuracy. However, predicting long-term weather events, such as the monsoon season, remains difficult. To improve, scientists need more data on factors like soil moisture, dust, and ocean conditions.
International cooperation will also be important for improving weather forecasting in the future. By sharing data and weather models, countries can work together to improve predictions for global weather events. As the climate continues to warm, the need for collaboration and innovation will only grow.
Conclusion
In conclusion, global warming is making weather forecasting more complex, but it is also pushing scientists to find new solutions. As the climate changes, traditional weather patterns are becoming less reliable, making it harder to predict events like cyclones, monsoons, and El Niño. Although scientists are improving their models and using new technologies like artificial intelligence, predicting weather in a warming world will remain a challenge.
The extreme weather events of 2023 and 2024 have shown that the impacts of global warming can be far-reaching and unpredictable. However, by continuing to improve weather models, gathering more data, and working together internationally, scientists can improve their ability to predict and respond to future weather events. While the task ahead is difficult, the ongoing efforts of meteorologists and climate scientists offer hope for more accurate weather forecasting in the future. The challenges are vast, but with continued innovation, better data collection, and global collaboration, we can handle the risks of a warming planet while developing more accurate weather forecasting technologies.