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China plans to run trains from Kunming to Singapore
Context: During his visit to Malaysia last week, Chinese Premier Li Qiang expressed China’s willingness to explore connecting its railway projects in Malaysia, Laos, and Thailand to enhance regional connectivity.
Overview: Chinese Premier Li Qiang and Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim attended the groundbreaking for Malaysia’s East Coast Rail Link (ECRL) Gombak Integrated Terminal Station.
East Coast Rail Link (ECRL)
- Project: The ECRL is a 665-km-long railway connecting Kota Bharu on the northeastern coast of Malaysia with Port Klang on the west coast.
- Economic Benefits: Expected to bring significant economic benefits through improved connectivity, including freight movement and tourism.
- Significance: Described by Chinese state media as the largest economic and trade cooperation project between China and Malaysia.
- Project Timeline: Started in 2017, stalled due to funding issues, and resumed in 2020 with completion expected by 2027.
Historical Challenges:
- Funding and Political Issues:
- 2018: Malaysian PM Mahathir Mohamad froze the project due to high costs.
- Domestic Politics: The project was affected by the embezzlement scandal involving former PM Najib Razak.
- New Agreement: A revised deal was negotiated in 2020 to lower costs and resume the project.
Pan-Asian Rail Network:
- Concept: The pan-Asian rail network includes three main links:
- Western Line: From Kunming via Myanmar and Thailand.
- Central Line: Via Laos and Thailand.
- Eastern Line: Via Vietnam, Cambodia, and Thailand.
- Additional Line: Connecting Bangkok with Malaysia and Singapore.
Current Status of Pan-Asian Railway:
- Operational Sections: Only the Laos-China section has been operational since 2021.
- Challenges in Thailand: Thailand faces high costs and hesitancy to accept Chinese assistance.
- Completion Delays: Expected completion by 2028, with potential delays.
Economic and Logistical Concerns:
- Economic Projections: Vary railway track widths hinder seamless cargo transportation.
- Demand Concerns: Travellers and cargo transport may prefer cheaper and faster air and maritime options.
Larger Geopolitical Context:
- Historical Context: The rail link plans predate President Xi Jinping’s BRI, with initial mentions at the 2007 ASEAN summit.
- China-ASEAN Trade: In 2023, trade volume between China and ASEAN reached USD 911.7 billion, making them each other’s largest trading partners for four consecutive years.
- BRI and Regional Influence: The Belt and Road Initiative aims to strengthen China’s economic and cultural ties with Southeast Asia through infrastructure investments.
Strategic Considerations:
- Debt Trap Diplomacy: China faces accusations of “debt trap diplomacy,” which it denies, aiming instead to leverage economic ties to build goodwill and trust in the region.
- South China Sea Tensions: China’s territorial claims have created regional nervousness, making economic investments a tool to gain strategic influence.
