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Hezbollah Chief Nasrallah’s Killing and Its Impact on West Asia
Context:
The Israel Defense Forces killed Hassan Nasrallah, the longtime Hezbollah leader who, over 32 years, transformed the Iran-backed group into a powerful political and military force in southern Lebanon.
Background of the Conflict
- Recent Gaza Conflict: Israel shifted its focus from Gaza to its northern border with Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah.
- Israeli Airstrikes: Over 700 people killed and more than 100,000 displaced in Lebanon.
- Hezbollah Retaliation: Following Israeli airstrikes, Hezbollah fired rockets, including a ballistic missile intercepted over Tel Aviv.
- Israel’s Stance: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected ceasefire proposals, aiming for “total victory” against Hamas and Hezbollah.
What is Hezbollah?
- Formation: Established in 1982 as a Shia resistance group, with support from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) after Israel’s invasion of Lebanon.
- Political and Military Force: Hezbollah has a political party, a social wing providing services to the poor, and a powerful military wing, all backed by Iran.
- Anti-Israel Stance: The group is dedicated to resisting Israel, with a manifesto advocating for the destruction of the “Zionist entity.”
Why are Israel and Hezbollah Fighting?
- Hezbollah’s Objective: Resistance against Israel and ending its occupation of southern Lebanon.
- Historical Conflicts: Last full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah was in 2006. Recent tensions flared after Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack on Israel.
- Ongoing Conflict: Hezbollah began firing rockets into Israel in solidarity with Palestinians, prompting Israeli airstrikes on Lebanon.
Hezbollah’s Military Power:
- Weapons: Hezbollah possesses a wide range of weapons, including ballistic missiles, anti-ship missiles, and tens of thousands of short-range rockets.
- Asymmetric Warfare: Despite Israel’s superior military power, Hezbollah’s guerrilla tactics pose a serious challenge.
The Assassination of Nasrallah:
- Significance: Hassan Nasrallah led Hezbollah for over 32 years and was instrumental in its rise. His assassination is a major blow to the organisation.
- Leadership Crisis: Half of Hezbollah’s leadership council was eliminated, weakening its command structure and decision-making ability.
Israel’s Power Moment:
- Targeting Hezbollah: Israel’s campaign against Hezbollah leadership began with the killing of Fuad Shukr in July 2023.
- Axis of Resistance: Israel is fighting Iran-backed groups like Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis.
Lebanon’s Future:
- Hezbollah’s Decline: Public support for Hezbollah has waned due to Lebanon’s economic crisis. Nasrallah’s death could weaken its influence in Lebanon.
- Potential for Change: Lebanon may reduce Hezbollah’s grip on its political and social affairs.
Regional Implications
- Role of Gulf States: Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, and Iran will play key roles in shaping the response to Nasrallah’s assassination.
- Iran’s Potential Response: Uncertainty surrounds whether Iran will retaliate or de-escalate the situation.
- Impact on Hostage Deal: A stalled hostage deal with Hamas remains a key issue.
India’s Position
- Call for Stability: India advocates for peace in West Asia, crucial for its economic corridor projects and the safety of around 9 million Indians in the region.
- Energy Security: Two-thirds of India’s energy needs are sourced from West Asia, making regional stability critical.