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Africa’s Nuclear Energy Ambitions and Global Competition
Context:
The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war has underscored the critical importance of energy security, forcing many European nations to seek alternative energy partnerships.
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- Despite its geographical distance, Africa has not been spared from the war’s impact.
- As African leaders reassess their energy strategies, nuclear energy is emerging as a key driver of transformation in the region.
Rise of Nuclear Energy in Africa
- Current Status: Currently, Africa has only one operational nuclear power plant—Koeberg in South Africa—built by a French consortium.
- Future Prospects: However, several African nations, including Ghana, Nigeria, Sudan, Rwanda, Kenya, and Zambia, are planning to incorporate nuclear energy into their electricity generation mix to enhance access to power for their citizens.
- Investment Opportunity: According to estimates, Africa is expected to generate 15,000 MW of nuclear energy by 2035, presenting a lucrative investment opportunity worth $105 billion.
- Unsurprisingly, multiple global players are vying for a share in Africa’s emerging nuclear market.
Global Scramble for Africa’s Nuclear Sector
- France: France has historically dominated Africa’s nuclear market, particularly in Francophone countries. However, its influence has been waning.
- USA: In an effort to expand its footprint, the United States launched the US-Africa Nuclear Energy Summit (USANES) in 2023.
- However, the direction of U.S. engagement in Africa’s nuclear sector will depend on President Donald Trump’s stance on nuclear expansion.
- Russia: Russia, another key contender, has signed agreements with Egypt, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Burundi.
- Since July 2022, Russia’s state-owned nuclear corporation, Rosatom, has been constructing a reactor in El Dabaa, Egypt, albeit at a slow pace.
- South Korea: Meanwhile, South Korea, led by Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power (KHNP), has also expressed interest in Africa’s nuclear energy sector.
China: An Undisputed Leader
- Recent Phenomenon: In 2012, the China Atomic Energy Authority, in collaboration with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), launched a scholarship program to train students from African and South Asian nations in nuclear technology.
- This initiative not only fostered expertise but also positioned China as a preferred partner for African nations developing nuclear capabilities.
- Enterprises: China’s nuclear expansion is spearheaded by two major state-owned enterprises: China General Nuclear Power Group (CGN) and China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC).
- MoU with Nigeria: At the 2024 Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) in Beijing, Nigeria signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with China to collaborate on the design, construction, operation, and maintenance of nuclear power plants.
- This agreement was reinforced by a visit from Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to Nigeria in early 2025.
- MoU with Uganda: Uganda also signed an MoU with China to construct a 2 GW nuclear plant, with the first 1 GW unit expected to be operational by 2031.
Challenges for China
- Kenya: Meanwhile, Kenya aims to launch a research reactor by 2030 and is still evaluating potential partners.
- Ghana: Ghana has opted for U.S.-based NuScale Power and Regnum Technology Group to build its Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), while CNNC will construct a large reactor (LR).
- West Africa: In West Africa, military-led governments in Burkina Faso, Niger, and Mali—aligned with Russia—have signed MoUs with Rosatom.
- However, given Russia’s economic constraints due to the Ukraine war and associated sanctions, the large-scale investment required for nuclear development may deter Russian involvement.
- Consequently, these nations may turn to China for nuclear development and foreign investment.
Africa’s Nuclear Aspirations and Implications for India
- As the global push for clean and efficient energy gains momentum, Africa is increasingly viewing nuclear energy as a viable solution.
- Despite concerns over debt dependency, many African nations are likely to rely on Chinese financing for their nuclear ambitions.
- China is already leading global nuclear infrastructure development and has a strong track record of constructing new power plants worldwide.
- Beyond nuclear plants, most African countries lack the transmission infrastructure needed to distribute nuclear-generated electricity.
- China, through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), could step in to build these networks.
- This would further solidify its dominance in Africa’s clean energy sector.
- For India, this shift presents both challenges and opportunities.
- As of January 30, 2025, India’s nuclear power generation capacity stands at 8,180 MW, with an ambitious goal of reaching 100 GW by 2047.
- To achieve this target, securing a steady supply of uranium will be critical.
- India has previously signed a civil nuclear cooperation agreement with Namibia and plans to invest in uranium mining projects in Niger and Namibia.
- However, as China strengthens its presence in Africa’s nuclear sector, India may find it increasingly difficult to access Africa’s uranium resources.
- This could pose long-term challenges to India’s energy security and nuclear expansion plans.
Africa’s nuclear energy landscape is evolving rapidly, with global powers competing for influence. While China is leading the race, other nations, including Russia, the U.S., and South Korea, are striving to establish a foothold in the continent’s growing nuclear market. For India, navigating this dynamic environment will require proactive diplomacy, strategic investments, and enhanced collaborations with African nations to ensure energy security and sustainable growth in the nuclear sector.
