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Breakthrough Research Predicts Dengue Fever Risk in Europe
Context:
A recent study led by the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH) has highlighted the growing threat of dengue fever in Europe, driven by the spread of the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus).
More on News:
- Global movement, trade, and climate change are increasing the risk of dengue fever, which affects half of the world’s population.
- The disease has led to local dengue outbreaks in France, including Paris, Italy and Spain.
- Scientists anticipate the invasive species will eventually establish itself in the UK.
Key Highlights:
- The new modelling approach divides Europe, eastern Asia, and North America into 10km squares, offering daily risk assessments.
- By analysing the entire life cycle of mosquitoes, including how local climate and food competition affect mosquito traits like lifespan and egg production.
- Accurate predictions can guide local authorities in taking preventative actions, such as managing standing water where mosquitoes breed and advising public protection against mosquito bites.
- Authorities should inspect areas where mosquitoes are likely to lay their eggs, such as standing water, similar to the approach taken during the Paris Olympics.
- Asian tiger mosquitoes are already established in 13 European countries. Knowing the peak times and severity of dengue fever risk in these regions is crucial for effective management.
Implications:
- For regions where the species is not yet present, understanding the potential risk if the mosquito arrives is important.
- The rapid spread of the mosquito can lead to outbreaks in a short timeframe, as demonstrated by Paris, which went from first detecting the mosquito in 2015 to experiencing a dengue outbreak by 2023.
- The modelling techniques can also be applied to other mosquito-borne diseases, such as chikungunya and Zika. Researchers are developing risk maps for these diseases as well.