Competitive Regionalism in the Indian Ocean
Context:
In recent decades, the Indian Ocean has emerged as a vital geopolitical and economic theatre, drawing attention from regional and global powers. This shift has been driven by economic growth, strategic concerns, and the evolving significance of the Indo-Pacific region.
Phases of Indian Ocean Geopolitics:
- Post-Cold War: “Strategic Inertia” and Its Reasons
After the Cold War, the Indian Ocean witnessed relative neglect as global powers turned their attention elsewhere. The absence of major conflicts and limited economic development in the littoral states contributed to this phase of “strategic inertia.”
Key reasons:
- Limited Economic Activity: The region’s economies were underdeveloped.
- Focus on Other Regions: Strategic priorities lay in Europe and East Asia.
- b) Changes Post-21st Century in Indian Ocean Geopolitics:
- Rise of Asian Economies and Its Implications
- The economic rise of India, China, and Southeast Asian nations has enhanced the Indian Ocean’s importance as a critical trade corridor.
- The region now facilitates vital global trade routes, carrying a significant share of the world’s oil and goods. This economic surge has brought increased investments and competition among regional players.
- Indo-Pacific as a Unified Strategic Theatre:The emergence of the Indo-Pacific as a single strategic concept has further elevated the Indian Ocean’s profile.
- Institutionalism: The growing strategic importance of the Indian Ocean has spurred institutional regionalism. Organizations like the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA), established in 1997, highlight the region’s evolving geopolitical identity.
Two Models of Regionalism and Geopolitical Rivalry in the Indian Ocean
- IORA: The Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) represents an intergovernmental framework emphasizing diplomatic dialogue, regional cooperation, and maritime security. It promotes a sense of regional identity rooted in shared geography and economic interests.
- China-Indian Ocean Forum: Since 2021, China has hosted the China-Indian Ocean Forum, focusing on the Blue Economy and fostering bilateral partnerships. While the forum aims to facilitate dialogue among littoral states, it primarily serves China’s strategic goals, positioning Beijing as a key player in the Indian Ocean.
Comparison of the Two Models:
- IORA
- Geographic Focus: Rooted in the Indian Ocean’s geography.
- Collaborative Approach: Encourages multilateral cooperation.
- Agency for Littoral States: Respects the sovereignty and autonomy of member nations.
- China-Indian Ocean Forum
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- China-Centric: Reflects China’s strategic interests rather than regional needs.
- Client-Patron Dynamic: Relies on bilateral relationships, often creating dependencies.
- Geographic Disconnect: China, as a non-Indian Ocean state, lacks a natural role in the region.
Geography and Regionalism: China as an Outlier
Regionalism in the Indian Ocean is fundamentally shaped by geography. Littoral states, due to their proximity, share common interests and challenges. China’s involvement, despite its economic power, represents a geographic anomaly, as it is not an Indian Ocean state. This disconnect undermines the credibility of its regional aspirations.
Why IORA is a Better Model:
IORA’s emphasis on regional identity, multilateralism, and shared geography makes it a more sustainable model for cooperation. It avoids the power asymmetry evident in China’s approach and prioritises collective security and economic development over unilateral interests.
