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COP29: Milestones, Misses, and the Road Ahead
Context:
The 29th Conference of Parties (COP29), held in Azerbaijan from November 11 to 22, 2024, came with high expectations following the precedent set by COP28.
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- Dubbed the “Finance COP,” it aimed to address critical issues of climate financing.
- However, the conference exposed deep divisions between developed and developing nations, leaving many key decisions deferred to COP30 in Belém, Brazil.
New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG)
- Short of Target: While COP29 adopted a resolution on the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG), its US$300 billion target falls significantly short of the US$1.3 trillion developing countries require annually by 2035.
- Accountability: The focus on “mobilised” funds rather than directly “provided” financing opens the door to reliance on private and alternative sources, raising concerns about accountability and accessibility.
- Equity: Developing countries argue that loans and grants make funding less accessible, undermining equity.
- Not Legally Binding: Moreover, the NCQG lacks legally binding mechanisms to ensure developed countries meet their commitments.
- Controversy: The process for adopting the resolution was fraught with controversy, with claims that opposing views were ignored.
- The goal will be reviewed in 2030, offering a critical opportunity to reassess its ambition and effectiveness.
Climate Finance: A Historic Yet Inadequate Increase
- The annual climate finance target was raised from US$100 billion to US$300 billion—a significant increase but still insufficient for the US$1.3 trillion needed by 2030.
- While the agreement acknowledges private-sector contributions and the role of multilateral development banks (MDBs), it dilutes the principle of Common but Differentiated Responsibilities (CBDR) by encouraging voluntary contributions from developing countries.
- The newly proposed “Baku to Belém Roadmap” outlines strategies to mobilise additional funds but lacks actionable plans.
- The current financing structure prioritises loans over grants and mitigation over adaptation, reflecting a profitability-driven approach.
- Although there were minor concessions, such as simplified finance access for Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and Small Island Developing States (SIDS), the agreement lacks specific targets for adaptation, leaving funding inequities unaddressed.
Mitigation Work Programme (MWP): Stalled Progress
- Negotiations on the Mitigation Work Programme yielded little progress, as discussions remained mired in disagreements.
- Developed nations pushed for linking the MWP to the global stocktake and Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), a move strongly opposed by developing countries.
- References to phasing out coal, eliminating fossil fuel subsidies, and transitioning to renewables were excluded from the final agreement, leaving substantive discussions deferred.
Adaptation: Modest Gains, Persistent Challenges
- The adaptation finance discussions at COP29 were marked by challenges over the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA), National Adaptation Plans (NAPs), and the Means of Implementation (MOI).
- Developing nations pushed for explicit inclusion of MOI, but opposition from developed countries, particularly the European Union, limited progress.
- The Adaptation Fund received a modest boost, with commitments reaching US$124 million, still far short of the US$300 million annual target.
- The concept of “transformational adaptation” faced criticism from developing countries, who argued it could marginalise smaller, urgent projects.
Loss and Damage: A Neglected Priority
- Loss and damage, a pressing concern for vulnerable nations, saw little advancement.
- Despite the establishment of the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage (FRLD) at COP28, COP29 failed to include specific financing for this issue in the NCQG.
- Current pledges total US$759.4 million, a fraction of the US$580 billion developing countries expect to lose annually by 2030.
- Efforts to strengthen mechanisms like the Warsaw International Mechanism (WIM) for Loss and Damage yielded no substantial outcomes.
- Developing nations’ calls for systematic reporting and a loss-and-damage gap analysis were deferred to future discussions.
Looking Ahead to COP30
- COP29 highlighted the widening gulf between the ambitions of developed and developing nations, underscoring the urgent need for stronger international cooperation.
- Financial commitments remain inadequate, and the operationalisation of existing agreements lags behind.
- As the global community prepares for COP30 in Belém, Brazil, the focus must shift from setting targets to achieving tangible outcomes.
- Strengthening trust and collaboration will be essential to close the current gaps in ambition and action, ensuring the world takes meaningful steps toward addressing the climate crisis.
