Cyclones Linked to Long-Term Excess Mortality
Context:
Hurricane Helene recently struck the southeastern coast of the United States, resulting in over 200 confirmed deaths and hundreds of people missing.
More on News:
- The storm’s devastating impact has left many communities reeling, but the true toll of hurricanes may be much higher.
- A study in Nature found that tropical cyclones can cause increased mortality rates for nearly 15 years after they occur.
Hurricanes are powerful storms that form in warm tropical ocean waters and are known as tropical cyclones globally, referred to as hurricanes in the Atlantic and northeast Pacific, typhoons in the northwest Pacific, and cyclones in the southwest Pacific and Indian Ocean. These storms are characterised by very high wind speeds, heavy rainfall, and storm surges, which can lead to widespread damage and flooding. Hurricanes are classified by their peak sustained wind speeds, with major hurricanes categorised as category three or higher, meaning they have winds of at least 111 mph (178 km/h).
Key Highlights:
- Researchers from Stanford University have conducted a comprehensive analysis of 501 historical storms that struck the U.S. between 1930 and 2015, focusing on how these storms affected state mortality rates.
- Emphasised that the aftermath of a major storm leads to a series of interconnected consequences—such as city rebuilding, household displacement, and disrupted social networks—that adversely affect public health.
- Excess Mortality Method: Approach to assess the long-term impacts of tropical cyclones (TCs) on mortality rates, inferring that systematic increases in mortality after TCs are likely caused by storms.
Long-Term Impacts of Tropical Cyclones (TCs) on Mortality:
- Extended Mortality Increase: The study found that mortality rates in affected states increased systematically for about 172 months (14.3 years) following a TC.
- Excess Deaths Per TC: On average, each TC resulted in approximately 7,000 to 11,000 excess deaths, significantly exceeding official death counts.
- Cumulative Impact: Between 1930 and 2015, the total number of excess deaths attributed to TCs ranged from 3.6 million to 5.2 million, surpassing fatalities from motor vehicle accidents, infectious diseases, and wars during the same period.
- Persistent Effects: The mortality effects of hurricanes continue at elevated rates long after the immediate crisis has passed and public attention has shifted.
Why Such Long-Term Impacts?
- Economic Loss: Hurricanes often lead to significant economic disruption, causing families to deplete their financial resources. This can limit their ability to access necessary healthcare in the future.
- Dispersal of Families: The aftermath of a TC frequently results in families dispersing, which undermines social networks vital for maintaining health and well-being.
- Diverted Government Spending: In the wake of a TC, funds that would typically support healthcare may be redirected toward recovery efforts, further straining health services in affected communities.
These long-term consequences disproportionately affect vulnerable populations, including infants, children, and young adults, accounting for a quarter of all infant deaths in the United States.