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Eutelsat as a Potential Replacement for Starlink in Ukraine
Context:
Starlink, operated by SpaceX, has been crucial for Ukraine’s connectivity since Russia’s 2022 invasion, but geopolitical tensions, including concerns over U.S. support under a possible Trump administration, have increased interest in Eutelsat as a Franco-British alternative to reduce dependence on U.S.-controlled infrastructure.
Role of Starlink in Ukraine
- Military Applications
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- Starlink enables real-time communication for Ukrainian forces, essential for battlefield command and control.
- The system provides resilience against Russian jamming and interception, which is a critical factor in electronic warfare.
- Initially, Starlink was used for guiding attack drones, but SpaceX later imposed restrictions on this capability.
- Civilian Connectivity
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- War damage has severely impacted Ukraine’s fixed-line and mobile networks.
- Starlink has been instrumental in ensuring civilian communication and access to essential services.
- Thousands of terminals have been deployed, often financed by governments or private donors.
Eutelsat as a Potential Alternative
- Technical Capabilities
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- Starlink: Operates 7,000+ Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites, providing speeds up to 200 Mbps.
- Eutelsat (OneWeb): Operates 630 LEO satellites, supplemented by 35 geostationary satellites.
- While Starlink has greater coverage and user capacity, Eutelsat claims to provide comparable services in Europe.
- Cost Differences
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- Starlink: Costs $589 per terminal with monthly fees ranging from $95 to $440.
- Eutelsat (OneWeb): Terminals cost up to $10,000, with additional monthly subscription fees.
- The high costs of OneWeb terminals present a major challenge for large-scale deployment.
Geopolitical Considerations
- Dependence on U.S. Policy
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- Starlink’s services are controlled by a private U.S. entity, making them susceptible to U.S. foreign policy shifts.
- Reports indicate speculation that Starlink access could be used as a bargaining tool in negotiations over Ukraine’s critical minerals.
- The Trump factor has raised concerns about a possible retrenchment of U.S. support for Ukraine.
- European Strategic Autonomy
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- The European Union (EU) is exploring ways to reduce reliance on U.S. technology.
- France and the UK, with a 24.8% stake in Eutelsat, indicate strategic interest in supporting an EU-based alternative.
- NATO and EU backing for Eutelsat could help Ukraine maintain secure communications independent of U.S. political changes.
Challenges and Feasibility of Transition to Eutelsat
- Technical Limitations
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- Lower satellite count: Eutelsat has significantly fewer LEO satellites, which may limit its latency and speed compared to Starlink.
- Coverage concerns: OneWeb’s network may not match Starlink’s efficiency in dense deployment scenarios.
- Terminal costs: The high cost of OneWeb terminals could hinder scalability.
- Funding and Strategic Alliances
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- Given the high costs, sustained European funding is crucial.
- Strategic collaboration between Ukraine, the EU, and Eutelsat could help subsidise terminal costs and improve infrastructure deployment.
- NATO and EU involvement would be key in ensuring the financial viability of this shift.
- Political and Military Implications
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- If the U.S. limits Starlink’s availability, an EU-backed alternative becomes essential.
- Supporting Eutelsat aligns with Europe’s strategic goal of reducing reliance on U.S.-based technology.
- The transition would also strengthen EU-Ukraine ties while ensuring continuity in secure military communications.
