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Falling Fertility Rate
Context:
India’s total fertility rate (TFR) has dropped below the replacement level of 2.1, signaling a potential future decline in population.
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- According to data from the National Family Health Surveys (NFHS), the TFR remained at 2.2 between 2011 and 2015-16 but fell to 2.0 in 2019-21.
- Despite this, projections by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA) indicate that India’s population will not start declining until 2062.
- Meanwhile, the population growth rate is expected to fall below 1% annually starting in 2025, though the country will still add approximately 13.1 million people that year.
India’s Demographic Dividend and Ageing Concerns
- India’s population, currently at 1.46 billion (as of December 2024, according to Worldometer), benefits from a substantial demographic dividend.
- UN DESA estimates that 68.7% of the population falls within the working-age group of 15 to 64 years.
- However, concerns are mounting that the country could age before fully capitalising on this advantage.
- Rising life expectancy—71 years for men and 74 years for women in 2024 compared to 64.6 and 67.7 years in 2011—alongside declining fertility rates, have sparked fears of a growing dependency ratio.
Regional Disparities in Fertility Rates
- The fertility rate varies widely across India.
- Southern states, such as Kerala and Tamil Nadu, report significantly lower TFRs compared to northern states like Bihar and Uttar Pradesh.
- This imbalance has led to concerns over ageing populations in the south, where dependency rates are higher.
- Easing migration restrictions within the country could address these disparities.
- However, some states have imposed barriers to migration, complicating efforts to balance demographic challenges.
Economic and Social Challenges
- India’s demographic dividend remains underutilised due to limited access to quality employment and low female labour force participation.
- In 2023-24, just over one-fifth of employed individuals held regular wage or salaried positions, according to the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS).
- Experts emphasise the need to upskill the workforce and create higher-quality jobs to fully leverage the working-age population.
- To address aging populations, reskilling those over 60 years and boosting public investment in education, healthcare, and living conditions are essential.
Debunking Myths Around Religious Fertility Rates
- Amid calls by some to encourage higher birth rates among certain religious groups to counterbalance others, experts have pointed out that such fears are unfounded.
- NFHS data reveals that fertility rates across all communities, except Sikhs and Jains, have declined between 2015-16 and 2019-21.
- While the TFR among Muslims remains above replacement level, it has fallen significantly, from 2.62 to 2.36 during this period.
The Road Ahead
India’s population trajectory reflects a complex interplay of declining fertility rates, regional disparities, and economic challenges. Policymakers must focus on creating quality jobs, enhancing labour force participation—especially among women—and addressing regional imbalances to ensure that the country’s demographic transition supports sustained economic growth.
