India’s Case for Reviewing the Indus Waters Treaty: A Call for Change in a Changing World

India’s Case for Reviewing the Indus Waters Treaty: A Call for Change in a Changing World

This critical analysis, based on news coverage of India’s formal letter to Pakistan asking for a review of the Indus treaty of 1960, posits that India’s demand stems from its need to address contemporary challenges such as growing water demand, clean energy requirements, and cross-border terrorism, while ensuring the fair and optimal utilisation of water resources in the light of changing circumstances and regional dynamics.

The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) has been long been a symbol of cooperation in water sharing between the two nations, despite their turbulent history. However, in recent years, India has increasingly voiced its concerns over the treaty’s limitations in addressing the country’s present and future needs. Given the changes in population, energy demands, and political relations since the treaty’s inception, India formally requested a review of the treaty in 2024. This essay examines why India believes that the IWT needs to be revised, the factors driving this push for renegotiation, and the potential implications for India, Pakistan, and the region at large.

Historical Background of the Indus Waters Treaty

The IWT was signed on September 19, 1960, after nine years of negotiations between India and Pakistan, with the World Bank acting as a mediator​​. The treaty divided the rivers of the Indus Basin into two groups: the Eastern Rivers (Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej) were allocated to India, while the Western Rivers (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab) were allocated to Pakistan. India was permitted to use the water from the Western Rivers for certain limited purposes, such as non-consumptive projects like hydropower​​.

At the time of signing, the treaty was seen as a remarkable achievement, given the tense relations between the two nations. It managed to survive numerous wars and conflicts, including the wars of 1965, 1971, and the Kargil conflict of 1999​​. However, more than 60 years later, the world and the region have changed considerably, and India now believes that the treaty, in its original form, no longer meets its needs or reflects the current realities.

India’s Push for a Review: Key Reasons

• Changing Demographics and Water Needs:
• • One of the primary reasons India is pushing for a review of the IWT is the significant population growth that has taken place since 1960. India’s population has more than doubled, and the demand for water has increased dramatically. In states like Punjab and Haryana, which rely heavily on the water from the Eastern Rivers for agriculture, there is a growing need to utilise every drop of water available to sustain farming and other essential activities​​. In recent years, India has worked on diverting water from the Eastern Rivers, such as the Ravi, to ensure that it does not flow into Pakistan unused. This includes projects like the Shahpur Kandi Project, which aims to better utilise the water allocated to India under the treaty for irrigation and power generation​​.

• Clean Energy and Hydropower Development:
  • Another significant driver of India’s push for a treaty review is the need to accelerate the development of clean energy. As part of its commitment to reducing carbon emissions, India is increasingly turning to hydropower as a renewable energy source. The Kishanganga and Ratle hydropower projects in Jammu and Kashmir, both located on the Western Rivers, have been points of contention between India and Pakistan​​. Under the IWT, India is allowed to build non-consumptive projects on the Western Rivers, which means projects that do not deplete the water flow to Pakistan. However, Pakistan has frequently objected to India’s hydropower projects, citing concerns that they could reduce the flow of water into Pakistan, despite thesen being run-of-the river projects. India argues that these projects are within the technical limits of the treaty and that they are essential for meeting its energy needs​​. With the growing importance of clean energy, India believes that the treaty’s provisions regarding hydropower development need to be revisited.

• Cross-Border Terrorism:
  • A third critical factor driving India’s desire to renegotiate the IWT is the issue of cross-border terrorism, particularly in Jammu and Kashmir. India has repeatedly argued that Pakistan’s support for terrorism in the region has made it difficult to implement the treaty smoothly​​. This, combined with Pakistan’s actions at international forums to challenge India’s water projects, has strained the cooperative spirit of the treaty. The Indian government has made it clear that a treaty signed in the 1960s, when the geopolitical landscape was very different, cannot continue to be effective in today’s context, where security and environmental concerns are paramount.​​

India’s Actions in the Modi Era

Under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, particularly in his second term (Modi 2.0), India had taken an assertive stance regarding the IWT. This shift became particularly evident after the Pulwama attack in 2019, when a Pakistan-based militant group targeted Indian security forces in Kashmir. In response, India signalled a potential shift in its approach to water-sharing by announcing plans to stop the flow of India’s share of water from the Eastern Rivers into Pakistan​.

The Modi government has also accelerated the development of infrastructure projects to ensure that India maximises its use of the water allocated to it under the treaty. This includes not only hydropower projects but also initiatives aimed at diverting water from the Eastern Rivers for irrigation, industrial, and domestic use​. By doing so, India aims to ensure that no water allocated to it under the treaty goes to waste.

In Modi’s third term (Modi 3.0) which has just passed 100 days, these efforts are likely to continue, with an increased focus on hydropower projects and water management​. The government may also explore ways to use the treaty as a diplomatic tool in its relations with Pakistan, leveraging its rights under the treaty to exert pressure on its neighbour​.

Pakistan’s Response and Concern

Pakistan, for its part, has consistently opposed India’s hydropower projects on the Western Rivers, arguing that they violate the IWT and could reduce the water flow into Pakistan. Pakistan has taken several of these disputes to international forums, including the Permanent Indus Commission and the World Bank​​.

In response to India’s actions, Pakistan has raised concerns that any reduction in the water flow could have severe consequences for its agricultural sector, which relies heavily on water from the Western Rivers. Given that Pakistan’s economy is still largely dependent on agriculture, any disruptions to the water supply could have devastating effects on the country’s food security and overall economic stability​.

Role of the World Bank and International Mediation

The World Bank, which played a crucial role in mediating the original treaty, continues to be involved in managing disputes between India and Pakistan. However, India has grown increasingly frustrated with the World Bank’s handling of recent disputes. In particular, India has objected to the World Bank’s decision to activate both the neutral expert mechanism and the Court of Arbitration to address the same issues related to the Kishanganga and Ratle projects​​.

India believes that running both processes simultaneously could lead to contradictory outcomes and undermine the integrity of the treaty. As a result, India has refused to participate in the proceedings of the Court of Arbitration, arguing that the treaty’s dispute resolution mechanism needs to be reconsidered and reformed​​.

Potential Outcomes and Future of the Treaty

The future of the Indus Waters Treaty remains uncertain. While India has not officially moved to revoke the treaty, its recent actions and rhetoric suggest that it is serious about renegotiating its terms​. If India and Pakistan are able to come to an agreement, it could lead to a new, modernised version of the treaty that better reflects the current realities of both countries.

However, if the negotiations fail, it could lead to further tensions between the two nuclear-armed neighbours. Water is a critical resource for both countries, and any disruptions to the flow of water could have serious consequences for agriculture, industry, and daily life​​. Therefore, it is in the interest of both India and Pakistan to find a way to resolve their differences and reach a new agreement that benefits both sides.

Conclusion

India’s demand for a review and modification of the Indus Waters Treaty reflects its need to address contemporary challenges, including population growth, clean energy needs, and security concerns. The treaty, signed more than six decades ago, no longer fully meets India’s requirements or reflects the changing geopolitical landscape. India looks upon water rights as a matter of national security, especially in the light of Pakistan’s alleged misuse of the treaty’s dispute mechanisms. While Pakistan has resisted these calls for change, the future of the treaty will depend on the willingness of both countries to come to the negotiating table and work out a new agreement that is fair, balanced, and sustainable for both nations. As water becomes an increasingly precious resource in the region, the ability of India and Pakistan to cooperate on this issue will be critical for the future peace and stability of South Asia.