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India’s Geopolitical Role in a Changing Global Order
Context:
Russian President Vladimir Putin recently praised India’s efforts in facilitating a peaceful resolution to the Ukraine-Russia conflict, acknowledging India’s “noble mission” in advocating for diplomatic dialogue. This recognition highlights India’s growing stature in global geopolitics and its ability to maintain relations with conflicting parties while prioritising strategic autonomy. However, it raises the question: Should India take a more proactive role in global conflicts, or should it continue its cautious approach?
India’s Historical Geopolitical Engagement and Cases of Reluctance
- Active Involvement
- Bangladesh Liberation War (1971): India played a decisive role in stopping genocide and supporting the creation of Bangladesh.
- Maldives (1988): India launched Operation Cactus to prevent an armed coup and restore democratic order.
- Sri Lanka (1987-1990): India deployed the Indian Peace Keeping Force (IPKF) to mediate the civil war, though it ended unsuccessfully.
- Piracy Combat (Recent): India has actively participated in counter-piracy operations in the Indian Ocean.
- Instances of Reluctance
- West Asia Conflicts: Despite significant economic stakes, India has remained neutral in conflicts like the Israel-Palestine war.
- Russia-Ukraine War: India has abstained from UN votes and maintained strategic neutrality.
- Afghanistan Crisis (2021): India was excluded from Troika Plus talks and has taken a cautious approach post-Taliban takeover.
- Myanmar Crisis: Despite its strategic interests, India’s response has been non-committal.
- India’s Contributions to Global Public Good
- Vaccine Maitri Initiative: Supplied vaccines to over 100 countries during the COVID-19 pandemic.
- International Solar Alliance (ISA): Leading global efforts on climate action.
- Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI): Sharing Aadhaar-based digital governance models with the world.
- Humanitarian Aid & Disaster Relief: Rapid response to crises in Turkey, Nepal, and Sri Lanka.
Reasons for India’s Inconsistent Global Role
- Economic Prioritisation: Focus on becoming a $5 trillion economy has made India cautious about geopolitical risks affecting trade and growth.
- Bilateral Relations Concerns: Engaging in conflicts may jeopardise strategic partnerships with multiple nations.
- Non-Alignment Policy Legacy: India’s traditional non-alignment approach has encouraged a cautious stance in global conflicts.
- Resource Constraints: India’s military and diplomatic bandwidth is largely focused on border security with China and Pakistan.
Why India Should Play an Active Global Role?
- Credibility & Soft Power: India is seen as a responsible democracy with balanced global perspectives.
- Permanent UNSC Membership: Greater engagement strengthens its claim for a seat at the global high table.
- Geopolitical Space: If India remains passive, powers like Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar will take the lead.
- Strategic Alliances: Strengthening partnerships in Europe, Indo-Pacific, and Central Asia enhances India’s global leverage.
Why India Should Refrain from an Active Role?
- Risk of Economic Fallout: Taking geopolitical sides could impact trade relations and investments.
- Security Considerations: Involvement in global conflicts may distract from national security priorities (China, Pakistan).
- Geopolitical Backlash: Engaging in conflicts without clear objectives may harm India’s long-term diplomatic strategy.
Way Forward: A Balanced Approach
- The Need for a Larger Geopolitical Vision
- Multipolar Strategy: India must reinforce its position as a key pillar in a multipolar world order.
- Strategic Autonomy: Maintain neutrality but engage actively in diplomatic resolutions.
- India’s Strategic Regional Policies
- West Asia:
- Play a bigger role in conflict resolution while securing energy interests.
- Increase participation in Gulf diplomacy efforts.
- Central Asia:
- Revive engagement in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO).
- Leverage Chabahar Port to strengthen connectivity.
- Indo-Pacific & East Asia:
- Deepen Quad cooperation to counterbalance China.
- Develop alternatives to RCEP for trade partnerships.
- Europe:
- Strengthen ties post-Brexit and amid U.S.-Europe tensions.
- Expand trade & technology partnerships.
- West Asia:
- Internal Reforms for External Influence
- Boost Economic Competitiveness:
- Reduce trade barriers and increase FDI inflows.
- Defense Modernisation:
- Strengthen indigenous defense production under Aatmanirbhar Bharat.
- Diplomatic Capacity Building:
- Expand the Indian Foreign Service (IFS) cadre for a more effective global presence.
- Boost Economic Competitiveness:
- India’s Role in Conflict Resolution
- Act as a Balancer: Engage in diplomacy without taking rigid positions.
- Proactive Mediation: Not just a mediator but a credible influencer in global peace efforts.
- Enhance UNSC Engagement: Push for multilateral solutions aligning with India’s global interests.
Challenges, Opportunities, and Suggestions in a Trumpian World
- Challenges:
- Trade Protectionism: Trump’s potential tariffs may impact India-U.S. trade.
- U.S.-China Deal: Risk of regional instability if India is sidelined in global agreements.
- Global Right-Wing Shift: Changing political alignments demand a nuanced foreign policy.
- Opportunities:
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- U.S. Strategic Shift: Potential disengagement from global conflicts opens diplomatic space for India.
- Economic Realignment: India can attract supply chains relocating from China.
- Enhanced Indo-Pacific Role: Strengthening partnerships with ASEAN, Japan, and Australia.
- Suggestions:
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- Strengthen U.S. Ties: Secure a bilateral trade agreement to balance future tariff risks.
- Expand Global Outreach: Engage in regional groupings beyond just bilateral diplomacy.
- Leverage Soft Power: Utilise cultural and democratic appeal to shape global narratives.
- Economic Diplomacy: Use trade deals to expand influence without direct political entanglements.
