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Indo – Myanmar relations
Context:
- India has invited political and military opponents of Myanmar’s ruling junta to a seminar in New Delhi, marking a notable shift in its approach as it has traditionally maintained ties with the junta.
- The seminar will include representatives from the National Unity Government (NUG) and ethnic minority rebels from Chin, Rakhine, and Kachin states.
Importance of Myanmar for India:
Geopolitical Importance
Strategic Location:
- Stabilising India’s North-East: Myanmar shares a 1,640 km border with India’s northeastern states, where insurgent groups like NSCN and ULFA operate.
- Joint operations, such as Operation Sunrise (2019), targeted militant camps along the Indo-Myanmar border to curb insurgency.
- India’s Strategic Gateway to Southeast Asia:Myanmar, sharing a 1,640 km border with India’s northeastern states, is India’s only land gateway to Southeast Asia and a crucial link in its Act East Policy to strengthen ties with ASEAN nations.
- Buffer Against China: India’s engagement in infrastructure and defence counters China’s influence through initiatives like the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC) and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
In his article “China, Myanmar and India: A Triangular Challenge,” Kanti Bajpai warns that Myanmar’s growing reliance on Chinese investments may limit India’s influence, urging India to enhance its engagement through economic cooperation and strategic partnerships to counterbalance China’s dominance.
Regional Diplomacy and Multilateral Platforms:
- BIMSTEC Summit : Myanmar’s participation in BIMSTEC enhances regional cooperation on counterterrorism, trade, and connectivity.
- ASEAN Engagement: Myanmar’s involvement in ASEAN gives India diplomatic channels to engage with Southeast Asia, particularly in security and maritime issues through ASEAN Regional Forums (ARF).
Geoeconomic Importance
Energy Security:
- Shwe Gas Project: Indian companies like ONGC Videsh and GAIL have invested in Myanmar’s Shwe gas field, which supplies natural gas to both India and China.
- India-Myanmar Energy Cooperation: In 2020, India secured a $1.4 billion agreement to access Myanmar’s energy resources.
Trade and Connectivity Projects:
- Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project: Connects Kolkata to Myanmar’s Sittwe Port and Mizoram, reducing India’s dependence on the Siliguri Corridor.
- India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway: A 1,360 km road network linking India’s northeast with Myanmar and Thailand, enhancing trade and connectivity with ASEAN nations.
- Bilateral Trade Growth: Bilateral trade reached $2 billion in 2021-22. India imports Myanmar’s agricultural products and natural resources while exporting pharmaceuticals, steel, and machinery.
- India-Myanmar bilateral trade is conducted under ASEAN-India Trade in Goods Agreement (AITIGA) and India’s DutyFree Tariff Preference (DFTP) scheme.
Development of Myanmar’s Infrastructure:
- Sittwe Port: Developed as part of the Kaladan project, providing an alternative sea route to India’s northeast and facilitating trade with Southeast Asia.
Geostrategic Importance
Maritime Cooperation and Indian Ocean Strategy:
- Joint Naval Exercises (IMCOR)
- The India-Myanmar Bilateral Army Exercise (IMBAX)
- Sittwe Port and Indian Ocean Security: As part of India’s SAGAR vision development of Sittwe Port ensures strategic access to the Indian Ocean’s critical shipping lanes.
Countering China’s Influence in the Indian Ocean:
- Kyaukpyu Port: China’s deep-sea port in Rakhine State gives it access to the Bay of Bengal.
- China-Myanmar Pipelines: India’s engagement with Myanmar reduces China’s strategic advantage with oil and gas pipelines bypassing the Malacca Strait.
Military and Defense Cooperation:
- Border Cooperation and Joint Operations: India and Myanmar have conducted joint military operations, including the 2015 cross-border strike against insurgents following attacks in Manipur.
- Defence Diplomacy: India has supplied defence equipment and training to Myanmar, including a Kilo-class submarine in 2020, strengthening naval ties.
Indo-Pacific Strategy and Maritime Security:
- Myanmar’s strategic location is pivotal for India’s Indo-Pacific strategy, ensuring stability and countering China’s assertiveness in the Bay of Bengal and Indian Ocean region.
Key Challenges in India-Myanmar Relations:
- Border Security & Insurgency: Indian insurgent groups use Myanmar’s territory for refuge, and drug trafficking along the porous border complicates security cooperation.
- The Free Movement Regime is being misused by militants and cross-border criminals for the illegal trafficking of weapons, contraband goods, and counterfeit Indian currency.
- Rohingya Refugee Crisis: Myanmar’s crackdown in Rakhine state and the refugee influx strain relations, with India balancing humanitarian concerns and strategic interests.
- Military Coup: The 2021 coup complicates India’s ties, as it navigates relations with the junta while promoting democracy and countering China’s influence.
In his article “Myanmar’s Turmoil: India’s Response,” Shivshankar Menon highlights the need for India to adopt a nuanced approach that balances security concerns with engagement with Myanmar’s military leadership, advocating support for democratic processes while safeguarding regional stability and strategic interests.
- China’s Influence: China’s growing economic and strategic presence in Myanmar raises concerns for India, particularly in the Bay of Bengal and northeastern India.
- Economic Delays: Projects like the Kaladan Transit are slowed by instability, limiting India’s economic engagement compared to China.
- Bilateral trade is mere $2 billion in 2021-22.
- Human Rights: India faces international pressure to address Myanmar’s human rights abuses, especially regarding the Rohingya crisis and military repression.
Way Forward:
- Engagement with all stakeholders and maintaining peace dialogue: Maintain dialogue with Myanmar’s military, ethnic minorities, and pro-democracy groups while supporting peaceful conflict resolution through mediation and technical assistance.
- Continuation of Humanitarian Aid:In response to the devastating cyclone ‘Nargis’ that struck Myanmar in May 2008, India promptly provided relief materials and assistance offers. Additionally, India contributed $1 million in aid following a severe earthquake in Myanmar’s Shan State in March 2011.
