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Middle East and North Africa: Warming Faster than World
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The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is warming at a rate significantly faster than the global average, with hotspots such as the Arabian Peninsula and Algeria experiencing the most pronounced increases, according to a recent study.
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- Published in the Journal of Geophysical Research, the study offers an in-depth analysis of historical and projected temperature changes in the MENA region from 1850 to the end of the 21st century.
- By employing dynamically downscaled climate models, researchers have revealed stark regional disparities and biases in temperature projections, with seasonal variations and distinct warming trends between coastal and inland areas.
Uneven and Accelerated Warming
- The study highlights that the warming rate in the MENA region, particularly in the central Arabian Peninsula, rivals that of the Arctic and is two to three times the global average.
- The Arabian Peninsula, already among the hottest regions on Earth, is warming at an alarming pace.
- Other areas experiencing significant warming include Algeria, Mauritania, and Iran’s Elburz Mountains.
- The arid and semi-arid environments characteristic of the MENA region make it a climate-change hotspot, with heightened vulnerability due to high greenhouse gas emissions and limited natural cooling mechanisms.
- Unlike humid equatorial regions, the arid deserts of MENA lack sufficient soil moisture for evaporation, exacerbating the warming trend.
Current and Projected Impacts
- Currently, the MENA region is nearing an average warming of 2°C above pre-industrial levels, a threshold that could render some areas uninhabitable without significant adaptation measures.
- Summer hotspots have been identified in the central Arabian Peninsula, including Riyadh Province and Algeria, while winter hotspots are concentrated in Mauritania and Iran’s Elburz Mountains.
- By 2100, under high emission scenarios, average temperatures in the Arabian Peninsula could rise by as much as 7.6°C.
- However, low-emission scenarios could limit warming to 2.6°C, significantly reducing the pace of temperature increase by up to 38%.
Coastal and Urban Adaptation
- The study also notes that coastal areas, such as Oman and the southern and western coasts of the Arabian Peninsula, are warming more slowly than inland regions due to cooling effects from proximity to water.
- Nevertheless, inland areas and the eastern coast remain particularly vulnerable.
- Adapting to the extreme heat in urban areas could involve measures such as urban greening, architectural innovations, and sustainable city planning.
- Meeting global low-emission targets would further alleviate the region’s climate challenges.
