Myanmar’s Unending Crisis: A Nation in Turmoil
Introduction.
Myanmar, once hailed as a transitioning democracy, has descended into chaos following the military coup of February 1, 2021. What began as a power grab by the military, known as the Tatmadaw, has led to a prolonged civil war, with the military fighting against ethnic armed organisations (EAOs) and the People’s Defence Forces (PDFs), loosely coordinated by the National Unity Government (NUG). As the country fragments into contested zones, the conflict has displaced millions and devastated the economy. Meanwhile, external actors such as China, India, and ASEAN struggle to navigate their own strategic interests amid Myanmar’s instability. This essay examines the causes, consequences, and future implications of Myanmar’s unending crisis.
The 2021 Coup: A Catastrophic Miscalculation
The Tatmadaw justified its coup by claiming electoral fraud in the 2020 general elections, where Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) won a landslide victory. However, international observers dismissed these claims as baseless. The real reason behind the coup was the military’s fear of losing its political dominance. The generals underestimated the resilience of the people, who launched mass protests, a civil disobedience movement (CDM), and later, armed resistance.
The Tatmadaw responded with brutal repression—arresting over 28,000 people, detaining 21,000, and killing more than 6,000 civilians. The violence backfired, pushing many young activists to join EAOs or form PDFs. By 2023, these resistance forces controlled large parts of Myanmar, capturing military bases and inflicting heavy casualties on government troops.
A Nation Divided: Myanmar’s Fragmented Battlefield
Four years after the coup, Myanmar remains deeply divided, with the country split into three main zones. The military-controlled areas include major cities like Naypyidaw and Yangon, where the Tatmadaw uses air power and heavy artillery to crush any opposition. Meanwhile, large parts of the countryside have fallen under resistance control. Ethnic Armed Organisations (EAOs) and People’s Defence Forces (PDFs) have taken over regions like Sagaing, Magwe, Kachin, Karen, and Shan states. In these areas, the military struggles to maintain its authority, facing constant attacks from rebel forces.
Other regions remain highly contested, with intense battles between the military and resistance forces. The Tatmadaw relies on airstrikes, while the opposition fights back with guerrilla warfare. Despite its powerful weapons, the military has suffered huge losses, and its control is slipping. However, the resistance remains divided, as different EAOs have conflicting goals. Without stronger unity and leadership, they may struggle to completely defeat the junta and bring lasting change to Myanmar.
China: Balancing Stability and Influence
China has the most significant leverage in Myanmar due to its economic, political, and military influence. It has long-standing ties with both the Tatmadaw and several EAOs, making it a key power broker in the region. Myanmar is critical to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), particularly through infrastructure projects like the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC), the Kyaukphyu Deep Seaport, and oil and gas pipelines that bypass the vulnerable Malacca Strait. These projects not only secure China’s energy supply but also expand its reach into the Indian Ocean.
Following the coup, China has played both sides. It maintains formal relations with the military junta while discreetly engaging with EAOs that control key border regions, particularly those along Yunnan province. Beijing has facilitated ceasefires, not out of sympathy for the resistance, but to safeguard its economic interests and prevent a full-blown civil war that could spill over into China. However, China’s influence is not absolute. Anti-China sentiment has grown within Myanmar, particularly as Chinese investments are seen as exploitative, and many believe China indirectly props up the military. Nevertheless, Beijing remains the only external power with the capacity to significantly influence Myanmar’s trajectory.
India: Strategic Caution
India shares a 1,643-km border with Myanmar, making stability in the country a national security priority. Myanmar is crucial for India’s Act East Policy, which aims to enhance connectivity with Southeast Asia. India has invested in infrastructure projects like the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project and the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway to strengthen economic ties. However, the coup has disrupted these efforts.
Initially, India condemned the coup and called for the restoration of democracy. However, it has since adopted a pragmatic approach, maintaining ties with both the junta and resistance groups. India’s primary concern is the impact of Myanmar’s instability on its northeastern states, which already struggle with insurgencies and ethnic tensions. The conflict has led to a massive influx of refugees, particularly in Manipur and Mizoram, straining local resources.
Additionally, Myanmar’s military has long been a partner in India’s counter-insurgency efforts. The Tatmadaw has cooperated with Indian forces to suppress rebel groups operating along the border. At the same time, India has covertly supported ethnic resistance groups that oppose China’s expanding influence. This dual approach highlights India’s balancing act—engaging with the junta to maintain stability while ensuring that Myanmar does not fall entirely under Chinese dominance.
ASEAN’s Failed Mediation
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has tried to help resolve Myanmar’s crisis through its Five-Point Consensus (5PC). This plan called for an end to violence, talks between all parties, a special envoy to mediate, humanitarian aid, and a peaceful solution. However, Myanmar’s military, the Tatmadaw, has completely ignored these efforts and refuses to take part in meaningful discussions. Meanwhile, ASEAN itself is divided—countries like Indonesia and Malaysia push for stricter action, while Thailand and Cambodia prefer a more cautious approach because of their close ties with military rule.
ASEAN’s failure highlights its weaknesses as an organisation. It follows a non-interference policy, meaning it cannot force Myanmar’s military to follow its decisions. Unlike powerful nations, ASEAN has little economic or military influence over Myanmar, making it difficult to bring real change. As a result, the violence and suffering continue, and ASEAN has lost credibility on the global stage. Without stronger action, Myanmar’s crisis is likely to drag on with no real solution in sight.
The Humanitarian Catastrophe
The conflict in Myanmar has caused a serious humanitarian crisis, forcing over 3.3 million people to flee their homes. Many have escaped to Thailand, India, and Bangladesh, while others remain trapped in unsafe conditions. At the same time, the country’s economy has collapsed—the kyat has lost much of its value, prices have skyrocketed, and food shortages have become common. Families struggle to afford basic necessities, making everyday life extremely difficult. With no end to the fighting, conditions continue to worsen, leaving millions in deep poverty and uncertainty.
Healthcare and education have also suffered greatly. Many hospitals have shut down, either destroyed in attacks or abandoned due to lack of medical supplies. Schools have also closed, forcing millions of children to miss out on education. Meanwhile, international organisations have been unable to provide enough aid because Myanmar’s military blocks access to many areas. With little outside help and ongoing violence, the people of Myanmar face severe hardship and an uncertain future.
Conclusion
Myanmar’s crisis has deepened over the past four years, with no clear path to resolution. While external actors influence the conflict, the solution must come from within. Unless the military relinquishes power or the resistance forms a stronger, united front, Myanmar’s people will continue to suffer. The international community must provide greater humanitarian assistance and support democratic forces, but ultimately, Myanmar’s fate lies in the hands of its own people. Until then, the country remains trapped in a cycle of violence, poverty, and uncertainty.
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The Source’s Authority and Ownership of the Article is Claimed By THE STUDY IAS BY MANIKANT SINGH
