New Delhi’s perilous recalibration with the Taliban

Context:

India’s Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri met with the Taliban’s acting ‘Foreign Minister’ Amir Khan Muttaqi in Dubai in January, marking a significant step in New Delhi’s evolving approach toward the regime in Afghanistan. The discussions reportedly focused on strengthening political and economic ties, as well as providing humanitarian aid.

About the Recent India’s Diplomatic Engagement with Afghanistan

India maintains indirect yet continuous engagement through regional forums and international organisations.
Key issues discussed:
- Humanitarian assistance and development projects.
- Regional security concerns, including India’s security interests.
- Utilisation of Chabahar Port for trade and humanitarian aid.
- Enhancing sports cooperation, particularly in cricket.

Humanitarian and Development Assistance

India’s approach prioritises humanitarian support to the Afghan people.
Key initiatives undertaken since August 2021:
- 50,000 tonnes of wheat.
- 27 tonnes of relief material.
- 40,000 litres of pesticides.
- 300+ tonnes of medicines and medical equipment.
- Partnership with UNODC to aid drug-affected Afghan populations, especially women.
- 11,000 hygiene kits, baby food, and clothing supplied since 2022.

Security Concerns and Implications for South Asia

The Taliban’s rule has altered regional security dynamics, raising concerns for India and South Asia.
India is wary of Afghanistan becoming a hub for terrorist organisations due to:
- Taliban’s ties with Al-Qaeda and other extremist groups.
- Potential for cross-border terrorism in Kashmir.
- Pakistan-based terror groups aligning with the Taliban.
UN 1267 sanctions monitoring report has highlighted the presence of terror outfits in Afghanistan, reinforcing India’s security concerns.

India’s Evolving Engagement with the Taliban

India’s Past Approach to the Taliban

- India historically opposed the Taliban due to:
  - Terrorism concerns, especially links with Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) and Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT).
  - IC-814 hijacking in 1999, where India was forced to release terrorists in Kandahar.
  - Support for the Northern Alliance against the Taliban in the 1990s.
  - Investments in democratic governments post-2001, including infrastructure and development projects.

Recent Engagements and Diplomatic Initiatives

- India has not officially recognised the Taliban but maintains backchannel diplomacy.

Key Developments:

- 2022: Sent a technical team to Kabul for humanitarian and developmental assistance.
- Reopened the Indian Embassy in Kabul, signalling pragmatic engagement.
- Participation in regional dialogues like the Moscow Format, Tehran talks, and SCO meetings.

Key Concerns about India’s Engagement with Taliban

Strategic and Security Concerns

- Terrorism threats: Taliban’s ties with JeM, LeT, and Al-Qaeda.
- Pakistan’s influence: Taliban’s dependence on Pakistan for support.
- Kashmir issue: Taliban’s ideological stance may embolden terrorism.
- Haqqani Network: Strong ties with ISI pose a security risk.

Economic and Developmental Interests

- India has invested over $3 billion in Afghan projects:
  - Zaranj-Delaram Highway (linking Iran and Afghanistan).
  - Salma Dam (Afghanistan-India Friendship Dam).
  - Parliament Building in Kabul.
  - Health and education initiatives.
- Taliban has expressed interest in India’s continued involvement in development projects.

Regional Connectivity and Trade Prospects

- Access to Central Asia: Afghanistan is key for India’s connectivity.
- Chabahar Port: Alternative trade route bypassing Pakistan.
- Trade via Afghanistan: Potential connectivity through INSTC and TAPI pipeline.
Geopolitical Considerations
China’s growing influence: Economic and strategic engagement with the Taliban.
Russia and Iran’s pragmatism: Maintaining diplomatic ties.
US and Western nations’ stand: Sanctions but continued counterterrorism engagement.
Pakistan’s role: Balancing Taliban ties while maintaining strategic influence.

Challenges in Engaging with the Taliban

Legitimacy issues: Taliban’s government remains globally unrecognised.
Human rights concerns: Regressive policies on women’s rights and media freedom.
Instability and internal conflicts: Rival factions and groups like ISIS-K.
Lack of policy consistency: Taliban’s statements on engagement with India fluctuate.

Way Forward for India

Pragmatic engagement: Continue dialogues without formal recognition.
Security cooperation: Work with Iran, Russia, and Central Asian nations.
Economic diplomacy: Focus on infrastructure, health, and education.
Humanitarian assistance: Ensure aid reaches Afghan people without empowering extremist groups.
Regional groupings: Strengthen role in SCO, INSTC, and Chabahar projects

India’s Multilateral and Regional Approach towards Taliban

India engages in regional and international platforms to address Afghan stability:
- UNSC discussions on Afghanistan.
- UN meetings in Doha and Moscow Format.
- Bilateral and trilateral dialogues with regional players.
- Collaboration with UN agencies on food security, health, and capacity building.
India advocates for a UN-led consensus to resolve Afghanistan’s political and security challenges.

Challenges and Roadblocks

Taliban’s selective approach to international obligations.
Pakistan-Afghanistan nexus fostering militancy and regional instability.
Radicalisation and separatist movements inspired by Taliban’s ideology.
Porous borders aiding the spread of fundamentalist ideology.

India’s Strategic Posture and Future Course

Ensuring regional peace and stability through diplomacy and humanitarian aid.
Continued engagement with all Afghan stakeholders while balancing pragmatism with security concerns.
Strengthening economic and infrastructure partnerships like the Chabahar Port for trade.
Expanding intelligence cooperation with regional players to counter terrorism.
Confidence-building measures while closely monitoring the Taliban’s actions.