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Nigeria’s 2025 Flood Forecast
Nigeria: Africa’s Most Populous Nation Adopts Community-based Flood Forecasting in 2025 Outlook
Context: Nigeria, the most populous country in Africa, is facing an impending flood crisis in 2025, with 30 out of its 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) identified as high-risk zones.
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- The warning comes from the Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency (NIHSA), which released the 2025 Annual Flood Outlook (AFO) on April 11, 2025, in Abuja.
- Themed “Flood Resilience: Focusing on Communities Preparedness and Adaptation Strategies for Flood Management,” the forecast calls for urgent, community-focused flood mitigation efforts.
Climate Change Context
- Nigeria continues to battle escalating climate-related extreme weather events, with flooding identified as one of its most devastating natural disasters.
- Past flood impacts: In 2024, at least 320 people died and 1.3 million were affected across 31 states.
Key Statistics and Risk Assessment
- 1,200+ communities are at high risk of flooding in 2025.
- 2,187 communities across 293 LGAs in 31 states and the FCT face moderate flood risk.
- High-risk states include: Abia, Adamawa, Akwa Ibom, Anambra, Bauchi, Bayelsa, Benue, Borno, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Edo, Gombe, Imo, Jigawa, Kebbi, Kogi, Kwara, Lagos, Nasarawa, Niger, Ogun, Ondo, Osun, Oyo, Rivers, Sokoto, Taraba, Yobe, and Zamfara.
- Urban flash floods are expected to worsen in cities like Lagos due to poor drainage and weak infrastructure.
Community-Based Forecasting Approach
- The 2025 AFO introduces a community-level flood forecasting system, replacing generic national predictions with tailored, location-specific alerts.
- Flooding timelines and coverage:
- April–June: 657 communities in 52 LGAs.
- July–September: 544 communities in 142 LGAs.
- October–November: 484 communities in 56 LGAs.
Broader Sectoral Impacts and Innovations
- The forecast expands beyond geographic risk, assessing sector-specific vulnerabilities in: Health, Education, Agriculture, and Infrastructure.
- It also includes:
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- Flood Forecasting – Time-bound scenarios for early warning.
- Flood Risk Communication – Tools to simplify complex data for actionable responses.
- Flood Mitigation and Adaptation – Guidelines to enhance resilience and reduce vulnerability.
Government Response and National Initiatives
- National Flood Insurance Programme (NFIP): Announced by Minister Joseph Utsev, this scheme offers insurance coverage for households, farms, and livestock. Pilot projects begin in Kogi and Jigawa states, known for frequent flood disasters.
- Niger Flood Project: A large-scale intervention targeting river navigation, irrigation, hydropower, flood control, and eco-tourism. Covers river systems from Lokoja to Bayelsa.
- Integrated Climate Resilience Innovation Project (I-CRIP):
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- A climate-smart, multi-ministerial initiative addressing: Food security, Water management, and Energy sustainability.
- Collaborating ministries include:
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- Ministry of Water Resources and Sanitation
- Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security
- Ministry of Livestock Development
- Ministry of Environment
- Ministry of Power
- The federal government plans to introduce an Annual Drought Outlook later in 2025 to promote integrated and long-term water resource management, complementing the flood forecasting initiative.
Flood Forecasting Methods: Overview
- Flood forecasting is the use of scientific tools and data to predict the timing, magnitude, and location of potential flooding.
- The choice of method depends on geography, infrastructure, climate, and data availability.
- Hydrological Modeling (Rainfall-Runoff Models): These models estimate the flow of water through a watershed based on rainfall data.
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- How it works: Simulates rainfall input → runoff → streamflow prediction.
- Common models:
- HEC-HMS (Hydrologic Modeling System) – Developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
- SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) – Developed by USDA
- MIKE SHE – Developed by DHI Group
- Hydraulic Modeling (River Flow and Floodplain Modeling): These simulate how water moves within river channels and floodplains.
- How it works: Takes flow input from hydrological models to predict inundation.
- Popular tools: HEC-RAS (River Analysis System), MIKE 11/21 – DHI tools for unsteady flow simulation
- Remote Sensing and Satellite-Based Forecasting: This approach uses satellite data to monitor rainfall, river levels, and soil moisture in near-real-time.
- Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning (AI/ML) Models: AI is increasingly used to enhance predictive accuracy using historical data patterns.
- Techniques: ANN (Artificial Neural Networks), Support Vector Machines (SVM), Random Forests, LSTM models (for time series forecasting).
- Integrated Flood Forecasting and Early Warning Systems (FFEWS): Combines meteorological, hydrological, remote sensing, and ground data to issue alerts.
- Organisations leading FFEWS: WMO (World Meteorological Organisation) – promotes Integrated Flood Management (IFM), Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC) – supports FFEWS across South and Southeast Asia.
- Community-Based Flood Forecasting (CBFF): Used in vulnerable or resource-constrained areas. Involves training local people to monitor river gauges, interpret alerts, and disseminate warnings. Bangladesh’s Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre (FFWC) has pioneered CBFF with success using SMS, community radios, and NGOs.
