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Pakistan’s Afghan dilemma
Context:-
The Afghanistan-Pakistan border has become a hotspot for escalating violence, marked by increasing insurgencies and frequent border clashes. These developments contribute to growing regional instability, which carries significant global implications.
Current State of Bilateral Relations
- Post-Taliban Takeover (2021): Relations deteriorated after the Taliban’s return to power, marked by mistrust and contradictory diplomatic and military actions.
- Mistrust and Complexity: Both nations send mixed signals, with conciliatory efforts overshadowed by combative measures.
Key Factors Straining Relations
- Domestic Political Pressures: Pakistan’s leadership faces pressure to project strength, complicating diplomatic solutions.
- Ethnic and Cultural Divides: Punjabi-Pashtun historical animosities influence policy and public perception.
Relations Since 2021: A Downward Spiral
- Role of Insurgents: Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Baloch separatist groups exploit Afghan territory for operations, worsening violence.
- Afghan Taliban’s Role: Seen as protectors of insurgents, complicating Pakistan’s attempts at resolution.
Significant Incidents of Force in Recent Times
- South Waziristan Checkpost Attack
- TTP attack resulting in 16 Pakistani soldier deaths.
- Subsequent airstrikes in Paktika province.
- Publicisation of the incident by the Pakistan military.
India’s Position on the Escalation
- Condemnation of Pakistani attacks on Afghan civilians.
- Criticism of Pakistan for deflecting internal failures onto neighbours.
Pakistan’s Measures to Address the Crisis
- Diplomatic Initiatives
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- Engagement with the Taliban: Attempts at talks mediated by religious clerics have yielded limited results.
- Regional Alliances: Efforts to engage neighbouring countries like Tajikistan for counter-Taliban strategies.
- Economic Measures
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- Trade Restrictions: Limitations on Afghan transit trade to exert economic pressure.
- Refugee Repatriation: Forced return of Afghan refugees to curb cross-border militancy.
- Military Actions
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- Cross-Border Strikes: Airstrikes and raids targeting TTP camps, with limited success and significant civilian casualties.
- Assassinations: Alleged targeting of militant commanders to disrupt insurgent operations.
- Psychological and Diplomatic Warfare
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- Framing Afghanistan as a Threat: Pakistan portrays the Taliban regime as a global terrorism hub.
- Conferences on Human Rights: Initiatives like the girls’ education conference aim to diplomatically isolate the Taliban.
- Wakhan Corridor Psy-War: Pakistan hinted at severing Taliban access to the corridor, escalating tensions.
Afghan Responses to Pakistani Actions
- Diplomatic Condemnations: The Taliban criticised Pakistan’s actions, supported by UNAMA’s (United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan) call for accountability.
- Military Retaliation: Strikes on Pakistani border posts and assertions of control over strategic areas like Wakhan.
Challenges for the Taliban
- Maintaining Ideological Unity: Balancing internal solidarity while addressing external pressures.
- Risk of Defections: Fear of TTP factions aligning with Islamic State Khorasan (IS-K).
Taliban’s Strategic Advantages
- Light Infantry Tactics: Familiarity with terrain and low-cost warfare enhance their resilience.
- Resistance to Pressure: Proven ability to endure against superior military forces, including the United States(US) and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR).
