Rising Global Nuclear Arsenals
Context:
SIPRI’s Yearbook 2024 reports increased nuclear weapons development and a greater reliance on nuclear deterrence by states, according to its latest assessment on armaments, disarmament, and international security.
Strengthening of Nuclear Arsenals Worldwide:
- Nuclear Modernisation and Expansion:
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- In 2023, the nine nuclear-armed states—United States, Russia, United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel—continued to modernise their arsenals.
- By January 2024, the global inventory of nuclear warheads reached 12,121, with 9,585 in military stockpiles.
- Approximately 3,904 warheads were deployed with missiles and aircraft, marking an increase of 60 from the previous year.
- Russia and the USA kept nearly 2,100 of these deployed warheads on high operational alert.
- Increasing Arsenals:
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- The United States and Russia possess almost 90% of all nuclear weapons.
- Russia deployed 36 more warheads with operational forces in 2023.
- China’s arsenal saw the most significant growth, from 410 to 500 warheads.
- India, Pakistan, and North Korea are developing capabilities for multiple warhead deployment on ballistic missiles.
- Reduced Transparency:
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- Post-2022, transparency on nuclear forces declined, particularly between the USA and Russia.
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- Russia allegedly deployed nuclear weapons in Belarus without conclusive evidence.
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- Nuclear diplomacy faced setbacks, with Russia suspending the New START treaty and withdrawing from the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT).
New START Treaty:
India’s Nuclear Developments:
- India expanded its arsenal from 164 to 172 warheads in 2023.
- It developed longer-range missiles like the Agni-V, which can carry multiple nuclear warheads.
- India’s nuclear weapons are stored de-mated, except for submarine-launched ballistic missiles which must be ready at all times.
No First Use (NFU) Policy:
- India maintains a No First Use (NFU) policy, committing to use nuclear weapons only in retaliation.
- However, experts suggest India might be ready for preemptive strikes, especially against Pakistan, given its developed capabilities.
- Despite tensions with China, India upholds the NFU policy, although strategic deception or lack of robust capabilities may underlie this stance.
Demateted Nuclear Weapon:
Historical Context of India’s Nuclear Program
- Early Developments
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- India’s nuclear journey began post-independence, spearheaded by Dr. Homi Bhabha.
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- The 1974 nuclear test was a response to perceived injustices in the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
- International sanctions followed but did not deter India’s progress.
- Doctrine and Policy
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- Post-1998 tests, India formalised its nuclear doctrine, emphasising credible minimum deterrence and NFU.
- The doctrine outlines massive retaliation and political control over nuclear use, stressing non-use against non-nuclear states.
Challenges and Strategic Considerations:
- Doctrine Debates
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- India’s adherence to NFU faces scrutiny. Some argue it allows adversaries to take the initiative, particularly with Pakistan’s low nuclear thresholds.
- Abandoning NFU could destabilise regional balance and strain India’s nuclear capabilities.
- Strategic Costs
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- Adopting a first-use policy would require substantial investments in nuclear arsenals and delivery systems.
- India’s existing arsenal is modest, and a preemptive strike on Pakistan would deplete resources, leaving it vulnerable to China.
Diplomatic and Security Strategies
- Global Nuclear Order
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- India’s nuclear policy promotes stability and supports its aspirations for membership in groups like the Nuclear Supplier Group (NSG).
- Advocating for a global NFU order, India emphasises joint efforts with China to enhance nuclear security.
- Regional Stability
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- India should focus on “dissuasive deterrence” by enhancing border infrastructure and surveillance.
- Maintaining NFU while bolstering conventional capabilities can project strength and ensure security without escalating nuclear risks.
Conclusion:
- India’s nuclear doctrine reflects a commitment to responsible stewardship and strategic autonomy.
- By maintaining a modest arsenal and an NFU policy, India aims to deter aggression while minimising nuclear risks.
- The doctrine’s focus on credible minimum deterrence and massive retaliation underscores a cautious approach to nuclear weapons, ensuring stability in a complex international environment.
- Advocating for global disarmament and strategic stability, India seeks to balance national security with broader disarmament goals.