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UNEP’s “Navigating New Horizons” Report
Context: The UNEP assessment predicts that disruptions will become evident in the next seven years, by 2035. India is among the areas expected to be severely impacted by unbearable temperatures.
Overview of the Assessment:
- The report aims to “foresee” rather than forecast the future, identifying potential environmental, economic, social, and geopolitical disruptions.
- One significant disruption involves vast land areas becoming unfit for human habitation due to climate emergencies such as wildfires, flooding, and intolerable heat.
- An associated disruption is mass migration triggered by unsuitable climate conditions.
Key Findings and Predictions:
- Nearly 90% of survey respondents believe these disruptions are “likely, very likely, or virtually certain” to occur.
- India is among the areas expected to be severely impacted by unbearable temperatures.
- The temperature rise will breach the “human climate niche,” a temperature band between 52- and 59-degrees Fahrenheit.
- Scientific Basis: A notable study from 2020 projects that over the next 50 years, up to 3 billion people could live outside the climate conditions that have sustained humanity for the past 6,000 years.
- Without climate mitigation or migration, regions like Northern South America, central Africa, India, and northern Australia could become too hot for human life by 2070.
Historical Context and Current Evidence:
- Human Migration and Climate: Suitable temperatures have been essential for human migration since the “out of Africa” exodus.
- Predictions suggest potential massive migrations as populations seek suitable climates.
- Study Insights: The 2020 study indicates populations may adapt to changing climates in situ, but many factors affect migration decisions.
- Without migration, one-third of the global population could face mean annual temperatures >29 °C, found in only 0.8% of Earth’s land surface, mainly in the Sahara.
- Historical Migration Events: Events like the Little Ice Age (1560-1660) caused massive migrations and population collapse in Europe due to climate changes.
- Current reports show evidence of internal migration caused by extreme climatic events.
Environment Alert
- Climate change will affect human habitability. Rising temperatures, extreme weather events and rising sea levels threaten the future availability of habitable environments. Low-lying island nations and coastal communities are particularly vulnerable, facing potential displacement due to ecosystem degradation and rising sea levels.
Rising Temperatures and Human Tolerable Limits:
- Predictions indicate temperatures will surpass human tolerance limits, especially in India and central Africa.
- Nearly 3 billion people might experience Sahara-like climates, known for being uninhabitable.
- Scientists warn of a climate emergency due to unprecedented global warming, last seen 100,000 years ago.
- The Holocene epoch began about 11,700 years ago, providing a stable temperature regime for human and environmental prosperity.
- Climate Disruptions and Human Settlements
- Historical Temperature Stability: For at least 6,000 years, humans thrived within a consistent temperature range, influencing settlement patterns.
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- An imminent and rapid change in this temperature band raises concerns about future habitability.
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Habitability and Climate Change:
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- Habitability: Environments that support human safety, resilient livelihoods, adaptability to risk, and sustainable intergenerational development.
- Five Pillars of Habitability:
- Land, Freshwater, Food, Settlement and infrastructure, Economic and subsistence activities.
- Impact on Small Island Nations:
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- Decreasing Habitability: Rising temperatures, sea levels, and degradation of buffering ecosystems exacerbate exposure to ocean hazards.
- IPCC Findings: Low-lying and coastal areas, especially those reliant on coral reef systems, are at high risk. Adaptation limits may be exceeded before 2100, even with low greenhouse gas emissions.