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Warming Trends and India’s Climate Context
Context:
The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) declared 2024 the warmest year on record, with global average temperatures 1.5°C higher than pre-industrial levels (1850-1900 period).
More on News:
- The India Meteorological Department (IMD) also reported 2024 as the warmest year for India, with a temperature increase of 0.65°C over the 1991-2020 period.
- Global temperature rise includes both land and ocean warming, with land warming by 1.6°C since pre-industrial times and ocean warming by about 0.9°C.
Baseline Differences:
- The global temperature data compares to the 1850-1900 baseline, while India’s data uses the 1991-2020 baseline due to lack of pre-1900 temperature data for India.
- For comparison with the global warming trend, the IMD’s 2024 temperature (1.2°C above the 1901-1910 average) indicates a significant warming over India, though not as high as the global land surface warming (over 1.6°C).
Why Is Warming Lower in India?
- Tropical Location: India’s proximity to the equator contributes to a relatively lower temperature rise compared to regions near the poles.
- Polar Regions Warming Faster: The Arctic has warmed by 2°C, much higher than the global average, due to the albedo effect, where melting ice exposes land or water that absorbs more heat.
- Land vs. Ocean Heating: Land areas heat up faster than oceans, explaining the larger temperature rise on land globally.
Impact of Aerosols:
- Aerosols, suspended particles in the atmosphere, scatter sunlight and affect cloud formation, potentially reducing warming.
- India’s High Aerosol Concentration: India’s aerosol levels are high due to both natural (dust) and man-made (pollution) causes, which may reduce the overall warming by 0.1 to 0.2°C.
- Cleaning up the air could result in faster warming as the cooling effect of aerosols is reduced.
Regional and Seasonal Variability:
- Role of Land Distribution: Most of the global landmass is in the northern latitudes, where warming is more pronounced. In contrast, tropical and equatorial regions, including India, are dominated by oceans, which heat more slowly.
- Maximum vs. Minimum Temperatures in India: Since 1900, maximum temperatures in India have risen significantly, while minimum temperatures have shown less increase. This disparity has contributed to the relatively modest rise in mean temperatures.
- Climate Models and Regional Variability: Climate systems operate globally, and regional modelling introduces uncertainties, making it difficult to fully understand the causes of India’s specific warming trends.
Challenges with Global Climate Models:
- Global climate models and assessments often do not accurately reflect changes in India, which requires better climate observation and impact assessment capabilities.
- India’s vulnerability is high due to its large population, and the impacts of climate change are significant across the country.
India’s Efforts and Future Plans:
- India’s first climate change impact assessment in 2020 addressed gaps but ongoing, detailed assessments are necessary.
- Expanding the IMD’s weather observation network is crucial. The vision for a Viksit Bharat in 2047 should include a weather station in every village.
The launch of Mission Mausam is aimed at strengthening India’s weather monitoring and analysis capabilities. However, some regions still have sparse observation coverage.
