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Vigilance in China-India Relations Amidst US-India Proximity
Context:
Despite recent progress in China-India relations, China remains highly vigilant about the growing proximity between India and the United States (US). China perceives enhanced US-India cooperation as a strategic challenge that could undermine Sino-Indian ties.
The Recent Visit of S. Jaishankar to the US
- Indian External Affairs Minister (EAM) S. Jaishankar’s six-day visit to the US marked the first senior Indian official’s visit since Donald Trump’s re-election.
- It was the final high-level interaction between India and the Biden administration and symbolically important for shaping ties under Trump 2.0.
- The visit underscored India’s efforts to strengthen strategic and economic ties with the US amidst global uncertainties.
Chinese Narratives on Jaishankar’s Visit
- India’s Surrender to USA: Chinese observers view the visit as India’s “letter of surrender” to Trump.
- India’s Alignment with Trump’s Made in America: Concerns were raised about India’s potential to replace China as a supplier of low-cost goods to the US, aligning with Trump’s “Made in America” strategy.
- India’s Role in Ukraine Crisis: Analysts also questioned India’s role in resolving the Ukraine crisis and its alignment with US interests given India’s close ties with Russia.
Key Issues Strengthening US-India Ties,( According to China)
- Made in America: Aligning with Trump’s “Made in America” strategy by offering preferential conditions to American companies to set up supply chains in India.
- Critical Technologies: India’s growing role in critical technologies like semiconductors, potentially reducing China’s influence in high-tech fields.
- Military corporations and arms trade: Deepening military cooperation and arms trade between the US and India, perceived as escalating regional tensions.
Recent US-India Interactions That Alarm China
- Jake Sullivan’s Visit to India (January 2025):
- Chinese media labelled Sullivan’s visit as an attempt to stir up antagonism between India and China.
- Allegations were made that Sullivan discussed China’s dam projects in Tibet with Indian National Security Advisor Ajit Doval.
- Chinese analysts accused the US of meddling in China-India issues to create friction.
- Quad Foreign Ministers’ Meeting (January 2025):
- Held just a day after Trump’s inauguration, symbolising the renewed strategic focus on the Indo-Pacific.
Key Dynamics of India-US-China Relations
- Strategic Rivalry: US-India cooperation is perceived as a counterbalance to China’s growing global influence.
- Economic Realignment: India’s rise as a manufacturing hub could challenge China’s dominance in global supply chains.
- Technological Competition: Collaboration on semiconductors and critical technologies underscores a shift in the global tech landscape.
- Regional Stability: Military cooperation and geopolitical alignments shape the Indo-Pacific’s future.
- Diplomatic Balancing: India’s ability to maintain strong ties with both powers without alienating either will determine its strategic success.
China viewed India’s prominent role in the meeting as a shift towards stronger anti-China alignment.
Chinese Views on Current India-US Relations
- Impact Chinese Investment and Technology: Chinese analysts warn that India’s closer ties with the US could jeopardise opportunities to benefit from Chinese investments and technology.
- They argue that stable Sino-Indian ties could serve as a strategic advantage for India amidst US policy unpredictability.
- Criticism of the US for leveraging India against China to maintain global hegemony.
Chinese Concerns over Growing India-US Proximity
- Fear of being sidelined as the US seeks to strengthen ties with India to counterbalance China.
- India’s Alignment with QUAD: Concerns over India’s potential alignment with the Quad framework (US, Japan, India, and Australia), which China views as a containment strategy.
- Impact on Sensitive Issue: Worry that US-India cooperation could impact sensitive bilateral issues like border disputes and regional stability.
India’s Strategic Balancing Act
- India must maintain a delicate balance between strengthening ties with the US and preserving stable relations with China.
- Clear communication with both nations is essential to avoid misinterpretation of strategic intentions.
- Leveraging its position as a key player in global supply chains, India should aim for economic benefits without aligning too closely with either side.
