Delimitation and Population Control
Context:
The proposed delimitation exercise in India has stirred significant concerns, particularly among the southern states like Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.
More on News:
- Chief Ministers N. Chandrababu Naidu and M.K. Stalin have voiced their discontent over the potential loss of parliamentary seats due to the states’ successful fertility transition, which has led to a reduced population share compared to northern regions.
- This issue resonates not only with politicians but also with the general populace in southern India.
- The concern is rooted in a paradox: states that have excelled in family planning initiatives may find themselves penalised through reduced representation in Parliament.
Delimitation refers to the process of redrawing the boundaries of electoral constituencies for the Lok Sabha (House of the People) and State Legislative Assemblies adhering to the principle of “One Vote, One Value”. This exercise is crucial for ensuring fair representation based on population changes over time. The process is governed by the Delimitation Commission Act, which establishes an independent body whose decisions are final and cannot be challenged in court.
The first delimitation exercise in India was conducted in 1952, followed by subsequent exercises in 1963, 1973, and most recently in 2002, based on the 2001 Census data. The last significant change to constituency boundaries occurred after the 1971 Census, and since then, the number of Lok Sabha and Assembly seats has been frozen until 2026 due to constitutional amendments.
Fertility and Political Representation:
- Andhra Pradesh: Andhra Pradesh’s Chief Minister, Mr. Naidu, highlighted the state’s earlier legislation barring individuals with more than two children from contesting local body elections.
- Although the law was repealed, he suggested a reversal, potentially encouraging larger families through state benefits.
- Tamil Nadu: Similarly, Tamil Nadu’s Chief Minister, Mr. Stalin, humorously suggested aiming for larger families, emphasising the irony of the situation where fewer children could mean fewer Lok Sabha seats.
- Disproportionate Impact: The crux of the matter lies in the disproportionate impact of fertility transitions on political representation.
- Southern states, which have achieved lower fertility rates, now face a demographic disadvantage in determining parliamentary constituencies.
Lessons from China and Beyond:
- Global examples illustrate that reversing fertility decline is a challenging, often futile endeavor.
- China’s one-child policy, though successful in population control, created long-term challenges such as an imbalanced population composition, a strained marriage market, and an aging population with increasing dependency burdens.
- Attempts to incentivise higher fertility in countries like Japan and South Korea have also met with limited success.
- Quick regulatory measures to manipulate fertility often lead to unintended consequences.
- Instead, the focus should be on maintaining a balanced population composition that sustains development without disrupting natural demographic transitions.
The Indian Context:
- India’s demographic divide, characterised by a wide disparity in population counts between regions, complicates the issue of fair political representation.
- A “one person, one vote” principle may seem ideal, but it risks creating skewed representation favoring populous regions over those that have achieved development through population control.
- The solution could lie in revising the criteria for political representation to account for demographic and developmental factors.
- Representation could be weighted by characteristics such as education and socio-economic development, rather than relying solely on population counts.
Impact on Women and Society:
- Encouraging higher fertility rates comes with significant implications for women.
- The personal costs of childbearing, compounded by inadequate state support, make such initiatives less feasible.
Women bear the brunt of reproductive responsibilities, and any attempt to reverse fertility trends must address these challenges through robust social support systems and compensation mechanisms.
