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India-US and the Illegal Immigration Issue
Context:
In a recent development, the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had his first phone call with the U.S. President Donald Trump following the latter’s return to the White House.
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- During the conversation, immigration policies were reportedly discussed, with Trump later stating that PM Modi would “do what’s right” concerning undocumented immigrants.
- While details remain undisclosed, the exchange highlighted the evolving diplomatic approach between the two nations, with the Indian PM expected to visit the U.S. soon.
India’s Diplomatic Approach
- Policy Shifts: New Delhi has been actively engaging with the new U.S. administration to navigate policy shifts, particularly concerning immigration.
- External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar has held multiple meetings with key U.S. officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, and other senior leaders in the administration and Congress.
- This proactive diplomacy underscores India’s efforts to maintain strong bilateral relations while ensuring minimal disruptions to Indian nationals residing in the U.S.
- Repatriation: Recognising Trump’s immigration crackdown as a domestic priority, India has signaled a willingness to accept the repatriation of undocumented Indian immigrants.
- This move is seen as a strategic concession to safeguard legal immigration channels, particularly for students and professionals.
- However, New Delhi has reportedly urged Washington to conduct deportations discreetly to avoid public embarrassment and political backlash in India.
Challenges of Trump’s Mass Deportation Plan
- The Trump administration aims to deport a million undocumented migrants annually, a significant increase from the 271,484 removals in the 2024 fiscal year.
- With around 725,000 Indians estimated to be living illegally in the U.S., the 20,000 identified for deportation represent only a fraction of the total.
- The logistical challenge of such mass deportations includes limited detention facilities and the need for increased deportation flights, potentially requiring financial contributions from affected countries.
- Furthermore, the stepped-up enforcement by the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) has sparked concerns among migrant communities, with reports of workplace raids and daily detentions.
- The administration is also considering using military resources to expand detention capacity, including a proposed facility at Guantanamo Bay.
H-1B and Student Visa Concerns
- While India is cooperating on undocumented immigration, its primary concern lies with legal migration avenues, particularly the H-1B visa program and student visas.
- Indian students constitute a significant portion of international enrollments in U.S. graduate programs, with over 351,000 studying in the U.S. as of May 2024.
- Additionally, Indian professionals dominate the H-1B visa category, securing approximately 72% of the nearly 400,000 visas issued between October 2022 and September 2023.
- Trump has expressed support for skilled immigration, acknowledging the contributions of H-1B visa holders to the U.S. economy.
- However, New Delhi remains watchful for any potential policy shifts that could impact these groups.
- With multiple U.S. states challenging Trump’s immigration orders, some analysts believe the President’s aggressive stance is primarily aimed at energising his political base rather than enforcing large-scale deportations.
By cooperating on deportations of undocumented individuals while advocating for the continuity of visa programs, New Delhi is striking a careful balance in its engagement with Washington.
