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The Hard Realities: A Geopolitical Landscape in 2025
Context:
The global political environment has undergone significant shifts entering 2025, driven by leadership changes, ongoing conflicts, and shifting alliances. These dynamics influence not only international diplomacy but also India’s foreign policy, which must adapt to emerging challenges and opportunities.
Key Political and Diplomatic Events Globally and Country/Region-wise:
- Donald Trump 2.0: Return to the Presidency:
- Break Between Terms: Trump’s re-election marks a unique return to the White House, potentially bringing a more confident and strategic approach to governance.
- Declared Policies:
- Plans to end ongoing wars.
- Proposals for steep tariffs on trade rivals, eliciting global curiosity and anxiety.
- Key Global Summits:
- India: Hosting the Quad Leaders’ Summit and a possible India-EU Summit.
- SCO Summit: Potential PM Modi visit to China.
- G20: PM Modi expected to attend the G20 Leaders’ Summit in South Africa.
Political Situation and India’s Foreign Policy: Region -wise Analysis
South Asia
1)Bangladesh
- Leadership Change: Sheikh Hasina ousted after 16 years; Muhammad Yunus leads an interim government.
- Challenges:
- Economic struggles.
- Failure to protect religious minorities.
- Diplomatic Tensions: Bangladesh demands India return Sheikh Hasina.
- India’s Approach: Support stability while carefully navigating demands for Hasina’s extradition.
2) Sri Lanka
- New Leadership: Anura Kumara Dissanayake, a leftist politician, ascends to power.
- Key Issue: Addressing Tamil minority aspirations.
- India’s Focus: Promote reconciliation efforts and strengthen maritime cooperation.
3) Maldives
- Anti-India Sentiment: President Mohamed Muizzu elected on an anti-India platform.
- Positive Signs: Muizzu’s visit to India in October 2024.
- India’s Strategy: Build trust and enhance development partnerships.
4) Nepal
- Pro-China Leadership: K P Sharma Oli returns as Prime Minister with an alliance stabilizing ties.
- India’s Task: Counterbalance China’s influence while deepening economic and cultural ties.
India’s Neighbourhood
- Geopolitical Dynamics: Ongoing wars in West Asia and South Asia pose challenges.
- Doctrine of Indifference: No engagement with Pakistan due to continued security concerns.
- SAARC Revival: Unlikely due to India’s stance on terrorism.
- Security Issues: Attacks in Jammu reinforce India’s position.
Global Powers
- United States
- Trump-Modi Meeting: Likely early 2025.
- Concerns:
- Allegations over targeting Gurpatwant Singh Pannun raise questions on India’s commitment to a rules-based order.
- India’s role as a democratic counterweight to China remains vital.
- Russia
- Putin’s Visit: Expected for the annual summit with India.
- India’s Role: Potential mediator in Ukraine peace talks; balancing ties with both Russia and the West.
- China
- Border Disengagement: Progress in talks post-Ladakh standoff; troop drawdown possible by summer 2025.
- Challenges:
- Trust deficit regarding pre-2020 patrolling points.
- Economic and visa restrictions on Chinese businesses.
- India’s Actions:
- PM Modi’s potential visits to China for the SCO and BRICS summits.
- Cautious normalization of ties.
- Europe
- Political Instability:
- Elections in Germany.
- Rising far-right influence in France and Germany.
- Immigration Debate: Impacting India-EU free trade pact and complicating India-UK trade talks.
- India’s Focus: Strengthen economic ties while addressing immigration concerns.
- Africa
- India-Africa Summit: Discussions to host in Ethiopia.
- Historical Success: 2015 summit saw participation from 40 African leaders.
- India’s Engagement: Deepen partnerships, particularly in South Africa during the G20 summit.
- Canada
- Diplomatic Crisis:
- Accusations over Hardeep Singh Nijjar’s assassination.
- Reputational damage for India globally.
- India’s Task: Rebuild trust while countering narratives detrimental to its image.
7) Ukraine Conflict
- Negotiations: President Zelenskyy signals readiness for talks, but terms with Russia remain uncertain.
- India’s Role:
- Act as a neutral venue or mediator.
- Carefully evaluate risks and rewards of involvement.
