Font size:
Print
Israel-Hamas Ceasefire
Context:
The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas brokered by Qatar, Egypt, and the United States, aims to halt military operations, facilitate humanitarian aid, and pave the way for a potential resolution of the broader conflict.
Key Highlights of the Israel-Hamas Conflict (2023)
- Hamas’s Attack on Israel: On October 7, 2023, Hamas attacked Israel, firing thousands of rockets and infiltrating its territory, resulting in over 1,200 deaths and the abduction of around 100 Israelis, with at least a third believed dead.
- Israel’s Military Offensive: In response to the Hamas attack, Israel launched a military offensive in Gaza, targeting Hamas but causing over 64,000 deaths and widespread destruction, according to The Lancet.
- Ceasefire Attempts and Ongoing Tensions: Ceasefire efforts by the US, Egypt, and Qatar achieved temporary agreements, but deep political and territorial tensions hindered a lasting resolution.
About the Ceasefire Deal
Two Important Aspects
- Hostage and Prisoner Exchange: The first phase involves the release of 33 Israeli hostages, prioritising women, children, and the elderly. In exchange, Israel will release Palestinian prisoners, with the ratio varying based on the hostage’s status.
- Withdrawal and Humanitarian Aid: Israeli forces will withdraw from heavily populated areas in Gaza, and a surge in humanitarian aid will be allowed. This includes rebuilding essential infrastructure and enabling displaced Palestinians to return home.
How Will the Ceasefire Work?
- First Phase: A 42-day ceasefire period where military operations will cease. Hostage exchanges and the provision of aid will be prioritised.
- Israeli forces will redeploy to designated areas, and Hamas will facilitate civilian movement under agreed conditions.
- Subsequent Phases: Negotiations will address the release of remaining hostages, full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, and the reconstruction of Gaza under international oversight.
About the Humanitarian Crisis
- Food and Supplies: The situation in Gaza deteriorated sharply after the October 2023 attacks. Daily humanitarian aid truck entries plummeted from 500-600 to a mere fraction.
- Food Insecurity: At least 85% of Gaza’s population faces ‘crisis’, ‘emergency’, or ‘catastrophic’ levels of food insecurity.
- Structural Damage: As of December 2024, 69% of structures in Gaza were damaged, with over 60,000 completely destroyed. North Gaza and Rafah saw the highest levels of destruction.
- Displacement: Almost the entire population of Gaza has been displaced due to sustained Israeli strikes and evacuation orders.
What Does This Deal Mean for India?
- Diplomatic Stance: India has consistently supported a two-state solution while maintaining strong ties with both Israel and Palestine.
- The ceasefire provides an opportunity for India to advocate for peaceful resolution and humanitarian aid.
- Energy Security: Stability in the Middle East is crucial for India’s energy imports.
- A prolonged ceasefire could help mitigate risks to oil supplies and prices.
- Global Leadership Role: As a prominent voice in the Global South, India could mediate or support international efforts for reconstruction and governance reforms in Gaza.
What Remains Uncertain About the Deal
- Durability of Ceasefire: Previous ceasefires have been fragile, often breaking down due to skirmishes or political disagreements.
- Governance in Gaza: The transition to a governance model post-Hamas remains unresolved. Questions about who will oversee reconstruction and security are critical.
- Hostage and Prisoner Dynamics: Discrepancies in the number of hostages and prisoners could stall further phases of the deal.
- External Influences: Regional actors such as Iran, Hezbollah, and the Houthis could disrupt the ceasefire through proxy actions.
- Israeli Political Instability: Internal divisions within Israel’s government over the ceasefire may complicate its implementation.
Way Forward
- International Oversight: Establishing a robust international mechanism to monitor ceasefire adherence and oversee reconstruction efforts is vital.
- Governance Reforms: Supporting a transition to a transparent and accountable governance system in Gaza, potentially under the Palestinian Authority.
- Long-term Political Solution: Progress towards a two-state solution remains essential to achieving lasting peace.
- Regional Cooperation: Engaging regional powers like Egypt, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia to ensure the deal’s success.
- Humanitarian Focus: Immediate prioritisation of aid delivery, infrastructure rebuilding, and the return of displaced populations.
The ceasefire represents a critical juncture, with the potential to end hostilities and lay the groundwork for sustainable peace. However, success hinges on addressing underlying issues and maintaining momentum through collaborative international efforts.
