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BRICS in 2024: A Pivotal Year for the Bloc
Context:
The BRICS grouping (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) has taken significant strides in 2024, positioning itself as a potential counterweight to Western-led global governance amidst shifting global power dynamics.
Ambitious Expansion and New Members
- Expansion to BRICS Plus: The bloc invited six new members—Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Argentina—to enhance its global influence.
- Membership Dynamics: Argentina declined its invitation, and Saudi Arabia’s membership remains uncertain due to its balancing act with China, Russia, and the U.S.
- Strategic Impact: This expansion could reshape global governance but raises questions about the bloc’s ability to deliver substantial outcomes.
Economic Influence and Resources
- Significant Global Share: BRICS represents 42% of the global population and 37.3% of global GDP (PPP), highlighting its growing economic clout.
- Control of Resources: The expanded BRICS members control nearly half of global oil production, dominate critical mineral markets (e.g., lithium), and hold substantial shares of global trade.
- Economic Potential: Projections by the IMF suggest BRICS will increasingly drive global economic growth, particularly in the Global South.
Achievements in Trade and Investment
- Intra-BRICS Trade Growth: Over two decades, intra-BRICS trade has doubled, accounting for 40% of global trade in goods in 2022.
- Development Financing: The New Development Bank (NDB) and Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) have mobilised $71 billion for infrastructure and sustainable development projects.
- Digital Economy Progress: Near-universal 3G and 4G coverage and ongoing 5G rollout underscore the bloc’s advances in technology.
Challenges to Cohesion and Unity
- Political Heterogeneity: Divergent political systems and strained relations (e.g., India-China, Saudi Arabia-Iran) complicate unified decision-making.
- Geopolitical Tensions: BRICS risks being perceived as “anti-Western,” particularly given China’s dominance, complicating India’s strategic balancing with the West.
- Ideological and Economic Differences: Conflicting priorities within the bloc hinder the formation of a cohesive agenda.
Strategic Priorities for the Future:
- Strengthening South-South Cooperation:
- Championing Global South Interests: BRICS can reform multilateral institutions and foster inclusive development through the NDB.
- Regional Digital Cooperation: Collaboration in technology and industrialisation can boost innovation and economic growth.
- Transforming Global Energy Markets:
- Energy Dominance: Oil-rich members like Iran and UAE enhance the bloc’s leverage in global energy trading.
- De-dollarisation: Reducing reliance on the U.S. dollar in energy and mineral markets could challenge Western supply chain dominance.
- Expanding Strategic Partnerships:
- Global Collaborations: BRICS must strengthen ties with the G20, WTO, and IMF to enhance its influence on global governance.
- Overcoming Protectionism: Internal economic protectionism and fragmented cooperation pose challenges to expanding partnerships.
- India’s Role in BRICS:
- Advocating Multipolarity: India’s leadership in promoting technology, counterterrorism, and sustainable development is pivotal.
- Geopolitical Balance: India must navigate relations with China, Russia, and Western powers to leverage BRICS for addressing global challenges like climate change.
Future Prospects: Bridging Words and Actions
- Key Challenges: Addressing internal divisions and enhancing cohesion are critical for translating ambitions into tangible outcomes.
- Potential for Transformation: If successful, BRICS could redefine global power structures and champion an equitable world order.
- Risk of Rhetoric: Without concrete actions, the bloc’s influence may remain limited to ambitious declarations.
About BRICS
- BRICS began as BRIC in 2009 with Brazil, Russia, India, and China, and expanded to include South Africa in 2010, with further additions in 2024: Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the UAE.
- Initially conceptualised by economist Jim O’Neill in 2001, BRICS highlighted emerging economies poised to dominate global growth by 2050, with its first formal summit held in Yekaterinburg, Russia, in 2009.
- The bloc focuses on enhancing economic cooperation, promoting political coordination, and reducing reliance on Western financial systems.
- BRICS, now encompassing nine members, represents about 41% of the global population and 37.3% of the world’s GDP in purchasing power parity.
