Bangladesh-Pakistan Thaw: Implications for India’s Foreign Policy
Context:
The recent thaw in relations between Bangladesh and Pakistan has significant implications for regional dynamics and India’s foreign policy. This article seeks to analyse the evolving relations between Dhaka and Islamabad, its underlying causes, and the potential impact on India’s strategic interests, focusing on diplomatic, economic, and security dimensions.
Recent Developments in Bangladesh-Pakistan Relations
Since the fall of Sheikh Hasina’s government in August 2024 following a student-led revolt, Bangladesh has been shifting its foreign policy direction. The new interim government under Muhammad Yunus has taken steps towards strengthening ties with Pakistan. Key developments include:
- High-level military exchanges between Bangladesh and Pakistan, including a Pakistani military delegation visiting Bangladesh and a rare visit of Bangladesh’s army chief to Pakistan.
- Resumption of direct flights between Dhaka and Islamabad.
Historical Context of Bangladesh-Pakistan Relations
The bitter legacy of the 1971 Liberation War, which resulted in the creation of Bangladesh and the separation from Pakistan, has profoundly shaped the relations between the two nations.
The war left deep historical grievances, particularly on the issue of genocide committed by Pakistan’s military. For decades, Bangladesh’s ties with Pakistan have been strained, with anti-Pakistan sentiment being a cornerstone of Bangladesh’s national identity.
- Bangladesh’s participation in Pakistan’s Aman 2025 naval exercises in the Arabian Sea, marking a significant military cooperation between the two countries.
Bangladesh’s Shift in Foreign Policy Trajectory
- Dhaka’s recent actions suggest a diversification of its foreign policy, moving towards a more balanced approach in its regional relations. The shift may be seen as an effort to recalibrate Bangladesh’s relations after a long period of close alignment with India under Sheikh Hasina’s leadership.
- While the 1971 genocide issue remains unresolved, Bangladesh has toned down its demands for a formal apology from Pakistan, instead seeking a “resolution of issues”.
Challenges to Deepening Bangladesh-Pakistan Relations
- The geographical distance between Bangladesh and Pakistan, with India acting as a buffer state, creates connectivity and logistical challenges for trade and transportation.
- Economic disparities between Bangladesh and Pakistan, with Bangladesh’s economy being more integrated with India’s, make a deep economic partnership with Pakistan less viable.
- Public opinion in Bangladesh, which still sees the separation from Pakistan as a key part of its national identity, poses an obstacle to any significant change in sentiment.
Strategic Implications for India
- Diplomatic Rivalry: The shift in Bangladesh’s foreign policy could dilute India’s influence in Dhaka, with Pakistan seeking to counterbalance India’s sway in the region.
- This is evident in the absence of any high-level engagement between Bangladesh’s interim leader Yunus and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in contrast to his meetings with Pakistan’s leadership.
- Security Concerns: From India’s perspective, the growing military cooperation between Bangladesh and Pakistan could be a source of concern, particularly in areas of terrorism, weapons trade, and maritime security in the Bay of Bengal.
- Impact on Northeast India: The potential for an axis involving Bangladesh, Pakistan, and China could heighten security risks in India’s northeast, where border tensions and insurgencies persist.
India’s Strategic Response
India’s approach to the evolving Bangladesh-Pakistan relations must be multifaceted, balancing vigilance with constructive engagement:
- Security Concerns: India must continue to engage with Bangladesh on critical issues like terrorism, border security, and joint military cooperation. Clear red lines need to be established to avoid any missteps that could undermine Indian security interests.
Potential for Bangladesh-Pakistan Axis: A Concern for India
The formation of an axis involving Bangladesh, Pakistan, and China is a potential source of concern for India.
While the diplomatic thaw between Dhaka and Islamabad may not lead to immediate strategic shifts, India must remain alert to the possibility of this alignment affecting its position in the region, particularly with China’s growing influence in South Asia.
- Strengthening People-to-People Ties: India must invest in cultural exchanges, developmental cooperation, and people-to-people contacts to reinforce the positive aspects of India-Bangladesh ties, thereby minimising the impact of any political realignment.
- Addressing Anti-India Sentiments: India needs to proactively address the prevailing anti-India sentiments within Bangladesh, particularly in the context of the minority Hindu community and border-related disputes.
- Regional Cooperation: Maintaining cooperation on water-sharing, border trade, and refugee issues will be critical in sustaining long-term strategic stability between India and Bangladesh.
