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Looking at 2025, Climate: Bleak forecast, adaptation way forward
Context:
In 2024, the world effectively abandoned efforts to limit global warming to 1.5°C, a key goal of the 2015 Paris Agreement. Ironically, this year also saw the annual global temperature exceed the 1.5°C threshold for the first time.
Key Indicators of Climate Change and Its Impact:
Temperature Breaches and Historical Records
- 2024: The Warmest Year on Record
- Global temperature surpassed the critical 1.5°C threshold for the first time.
- Accelerated warming since 2015 pushed the planet past the 1°C mark earlier than expected.
- Daily global temperatures in 2023 consistently exceeded pre-industrial levels by at least 1°C.
- 173 days in 2023 surpassed the 1.5°C threshold, with two days even exceeding 2°C.
- Human and Ecosystem Toll
- Thousands of lives lost to extreme heatwaves and weather events in 2024.
- Significant damage to natural ecosystems and critical infrastructure.
- Increased Environmental Vulnerabilities
- Rising temperatures exacerbated vulnerabilities, including water scarcity, desertification, and biodiversity loss.
Weak Response to the Climate Crisis:
Inadequate Global Efforts
- Shortfall in Emission Reductions
- The IPCC recommended a 43% emissions cut by 2030, but current efforts project only a 2% reduction.
- The 1.5°C target has become unattainable, with data dispelling the “narrow window” optimism.
Ineffectiveness of Global Climate Financing
- COP29’s Financial Commitments
- Only $300 billion annually was committed starting in 2035, far below the trillions required.
- Critical adaptation projects remain underfunded, particularly in developing nations.
- Unfulfilled Promises by Developed Nations
- Failure to meet commitments on emissions reductions, finance, and technology transfer.
- Erosion of global confidence in cooperative climate action.
Roadblocks to Meeting Paris Agreement Deadlines:
Several factors impede the achievement of the Paris Agreement’s targets:
- Inadequate Global Commitments: Major emitters like the United States and China are underperforming. Despite its significant historical emissions, the US’s current climate targets barely meet global minimum requirements. Meanwhile, China, though a leader in renewable energy, continues to increase emissions due to its developing nation status.
- Potential Withdrawals: The anticipated US withdrawal under President-elect Donald Trump and Argentina’s reconsideration of its Paris Agreement commitments could trigger a cascade of similar exits, weakening global climate efforts.
- Insufficient Financial Support: Developing nations remain disillusioned by unfulfilled promises of climate financing, which hampers their ability to implement adaptation and mitigation measures effectively.
Proposed Reforms for the Future:
Innovative reforms can address these challenges:
- Legal Accountability: An ongoing case in the International Court of Justice (ICJ) seeks to clarify nations’ obligations for climate action, offering hope for holding developed countries accountable.
- Technological Advancements: Emerging technologies in AI, quantum systems, and biotechnology are revolutionising renewable energy systems, carbon capture, and battery storage. These advancements hold the potential to accelerate the energy transition post-2035.
- Global Collaboration: Strengthening multilateral mechanisms and fostering partnerships can ensure equitable technology transfer and financial support for vulnerable nations.
Adaptation Challenges for the Developing World:
Developing nations face unique challenges in addressing climate impacts:
- Limited Resources: Many lack the financial and technical resources needed for large-scale adaptation projects.
- Disproportionate Impacts: Climate effects disproportionately affect resource-starved regions, compounding their vulnerabilities.
- Dependence on External Support: Effective adaptation in these nations requires sustained international financial and technical assistance.
Proposed Safeguard Response: Adaptation as the Imperative
Shifting Focus from Mitigation to Adaptation:
- Urgency of Resilience-Building Measures
- Adaptation is essential to mitigate immediate impacts and save lives in vulnerable regions.
- Long-term mitigation strategies require time, making adaptation a critical stopgap solution.
Key Adaptation Initiatives
- Early Warning Systems
- Campaigns like the World Meteorological Organisation’s “Early Warnings for All” aim to address gaps in extreme weather preparedness.
- Over 50% of the global population lacks effective early warning systems.
- Prioritising Vulnerable Regions
- Investments in climate-resilient infrastructure and disaster management can reduce vulnerabilities.
- Focused efforts in developing nations are vital to prevent disproportionate impacts.
Way Forward: Harnessing New Technologies and Dimensions
The road ahead demands a pivot from mitigation to resilience while exploring innovative solutions. Key steps include:
- Accelerating Fossil Fuel Elimination: Post-2035, realistic opportunities exist for phasing out fossil fuels and transitioning to clean energy sources.
- Advancing Early Warning Systems: Ensuring global access to early warning systems can significantly mitigate the impacts of extreme weather events.
- Strengthening Global Institutions: Reinvigorating climate agreements with enforceable targets and robust accountability mechanisms is crucial for long-term success.
