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Emerging Technologies in the Development and Delivery of CBRN Threats
Context:
The emergence of Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear (CBRN) terrorism as a global threat has intensified since the late 20th century, driven by non-state actors.
- Notable incidents, such as the 1995 Tokyo sarin gas attack and the 2001 anthrax attacks, highlight civilian vulnerabilities and the devastating potential of CBRN terrorism.
Historical Incidents of CBRN Terrorism:
- Tokyo Sarin Gas Attack (1995): Aum Shinrikyo carried out a sarin gas attack on Tokyo’s subway, killing 13 and injuring thousands. This exposed gaps in readiness for chemical terrorism.
- Anthrax Attacks (2001): Anthrax-laced letters targeting U.S. media and government offices shortly after 9/11 demonstrated the operational and psychological impacts of biological terrorism.
Modern CBRN Threats:
- State and Non-State Actors: Both state and non-state actors significantly contribute to the risks associated with CBRN threats.
- Russia, for instance, has employed nuclear threats during the Ukrainian conflict to deter NATO intervention. Non-state actors, including IS and Al-Qaeda, have demonstrated interest in acquiring CBRN capabilities.
- High-Conflict Zones: High-conflict zones like Syria illustrate the dangers of CBRN weapon proliferation. In Syria, both the government and Daesh have used chemical agents such as sarin and chlorine.
Emerging Technologies and CBRN Threats:
- Characteristics of CBRN Threats: CBRN threats possess unique characteristics, including their ability to weaponise materials through unconventional triggers. These threats result in long-term health, environmental, and psychological damage.
- Role of Emerging Technologies: Emerging technologies exacerbate these risks:
- Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Large Language Models (LLMs): Facilitate detection and weapon design.
- 3D Printing: Enables manufacturing of weapon components.
- Synthetic Biology: Advances in pathogen engineering increase the potency of threats.
- Cyber Technologies: Threaten containment systems and security protocols.
- Drones: Enhance the precision and stealth of CBRN agent delivery.
Challenges in Controlling CBRN Threat :
- Accessibility and Regulatory Challenges:
- Knowledge Democratisation: The democratisation of knowledge through LLMs and chemical language models (CLMs) has simplified access to information about CBRN materials.
- Oversight Challenges: Significant regulatory challenges arise from dual-use technologies, which are designed for civilian purposes but repurposed for terrorism.
- Gaps in Detection and Response:
- Cyber and Physical Vulnerabilities: Cyberattacks on systems managing hazardous materials could lead to accidental releases, while coordinated cyber-physical attacks amplify the impact of physical threats.
- Challenges in Detection: Detection systems face multiple challenges:
- Synthetic biology enables pathogens to evade current surveillance.
- Emerging delivery systems, such as drones, complicate interception.
- Radiological detection systems are prone to misattribution.
- Underutilisation of AI in defense exacerbates response delays and increases human error.
Policy Recommendations:
- Technological Safeguards: To mitigate these risks, technological safeguards are critical. Governments should:
- Develop AI-based detection and monitoring systems.
- Invest in advanced decontamination technologies.
- Ethical and Regulatory Oversight: Ethical oversight is essential to ensure safety and compliance. Key steps include:
- Establishing ethics committees to regulate dual-use technologies.
- Expanding laws to address threats from emerging technologies like 3D printing.
- Public Awareness and Global Collaboration: Raising public awareness and fostering global partnerships are equally vital. Efforts should focus on:
- Educating healthcare professionals and the public about exposure treatments.
- Strengthening international treaties like the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) and the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC).
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- Fostering intelligence-sharing initiatives with private sector partnerships.
