US-Russia Talks in Riyadh and India’s Balancing Act

Context:

Two days after meeting US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Riyadh to discuss ending the war in Ukraine, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov held talks with India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar. 

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• Their discussions, which took place on the sidelines of the G20 ministerial meeting in Johannesburg, covered developments in the Ukraine conflict, including Lavrov’s recent engagement in Riyadh.
• Jaishankar’s visit followed his trip to the United States and attendance at the Munich Security Conference, where he met Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha to discuss conflict resolution efforts. 
• Sybiha expressed Ukraine’s interest in strengthening ties with India and emphasised the need for India’s global influence to support a just and lasting peace.

Riyadh Meeting: A Shift in US Policy

• Departure of Isolating Moscow: The high-level US-Russia engagement in Riyadh marked a significant departure from Washington’s previous stance of isolating Moscow. 
• Restarting Engagement: The meeting resulted in agreements to restart diplomatic engagement, reinstate expelled embassy staff, and discuss an economic roadmap. 
  • However, Ukraine’s absence from the negotiations has raised concerns about its sovereignty and the future of the transatlantic alliance.
• Unsettled Allies: This change in US policy, which deviates from the previous administration’s staunch support for Ukraine, has unsettled European allies. 
  • Many see it as a repeat of historical instances where great powers dictated the fate of smaller nations without their participation—drawing parallels to the hasty and arbitrary partition of India in 1947. 
  • India, with its history of colonial struggles, perceives the exclusion of Ukraine as a profound historical injustice, reinforcing the idea that powerful nations often shape global destinies without consideration for the affected people.

India’s Strategic Considerations

• Neutral Stance: India has maintained a neutral stance on the Ukraine conflict, advocating for dialogue and diplomacy. 
  • Prime Minister Narendra Modi has reiterated that “this is not an era of war” and emphasised the need for peaceful resolutions. 
  • However, the exclusion of Ukraine from the Riyadh talks has sparked broader questions about the fairness and sustainability of any resulting agreement.
• To safeguard its strategic interests, India could adopt a multi-pronged approach:
  • Leveraging Multilateral Platforms: India can use its influence in BRICS, IBSA, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) to advocate for Ukraine’s inclusion in peace negotiations and caution Russia against a settlement that could lead to long-term instability.
  • Engaging Gulf Allies: India’s growing relationships with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, both active in peace efforts, could be utilised to press for Ukraine’s presence in future discussions. 
    • Given India’s dependence on energy imports, stability in global markets remains a crucial concern.
  • Diplomatic Advocacy: Through its role in the UN General Assembly, the Security Council, and the G20, India can publicly oppose any settlement that disregards Ukraine’s sovereignty.
  • Economic and Defense Leverage: India’s significant trade relations with both Russia and the West, including major arms purchases, could provide leverage in shaping a more balanced resolution.

US-Ukraine Minerals Dispute

• Meanwhile, tensions between the US and Ukraine have escalated over access to Ukraine’s mineral resources. 
• President Donald Trump accused Ukraine of reneging on a proposed deal that would grant the US access to 50% of Ukraine’s strategic minerals in exchange for continued support against Russia. 
  • Ukraine, while open to negotiations, seeks more favorable terms.
• Ukraine possesses vast reserves of critical minerals, including graphite, lithium, titanium, beryllium, and uranium—resources vital for defense, technology, and clean energy industries. 
• The US sees access to these minerals as a national security priority, especially given China’s dominance in this sector. 
  • However, legal, geological, and geopolitical hurdles complicate any such arrangement. 
• Much of Ukraine’s mineral wealth remains underexplored, and portions of it are in Russian-occupied territories. 
• Additionally, Ukraine already has an agreement with the European Union for mineral extraction, further complicating negotiations with the US.

Trump Administration’s Radical Shift

• The Trump administration’s approach represents a stark departure from President Joe Biden’s policies, which focused on isolating Russia and supporting Ukraine militarily. 
• The recent remarks by US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, suggesting that restoring Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders is “unrealistic,” and Vice President J.D. Vance’s assertion that Europe’s biggest threat comes from within, signal a fundamental realignment in US foreign policy.
• European leaders, stunned by this shift, have convened emergency meetings to reassess their strategic position. 
  • For decades, Europe has relied on the transatlantic partnership for security, dating back to the Marshall Plan and Cold War-era alliances. 
• Trump’s recent moves, seen as abandoning Europe in favour of rapprochement with Russia, have left the continent uncertain about the future of its security framework.

Russia’s Satisfaction and India’s Watchful Approach

• Moscow has welcomed this turn of events, as it signals a potential end to its diplomatic and economic isolation. The Riyadh meeting could pave the way for Russia’s reintegration into global economic structures, a goal it has pursued despite Western sanctions.
• For India, the developments present both challenges and opportunities:
  • Maintaining Strategic Neutrality: India must navigate its relationships with the US, Russia, and Europe carefully to ensure its interests remain protected.
  • Balancing Relations with Europe: As India prepares to host European Commission leaders, it must frame its position on peace and diplomacy in a way that reassures Western allies while preserving its ties with Russia.
  • Positioning for Ukraine’s Reconstruction: India could play a significant role in post-war reconstruction efforts, strengthening its global economic influence.
  • Monitoring China’s Moves: India will closely watch how China responds to these shifts and whether US attention remains on Indo-Pacific security concerns.

As high-level negotiations continue to shape the future of Ukraine and broader global alignments, India must tread a careful diplomatic path. While the US and Russia pursue a realignment, India’s emphasis on dialogue, diplomacy, and strategic autonomy will be crucial in ensuring a just and stable outcome for all parties involved.