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Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions
Context:
Recent reports indicate a concerning trend in global carbon dioxide emissions, with projections showing an increase of 0.8% in 2024 compared to the previous year.
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- This rise, while lower than the 1.2% increase observed in 2023, highlights ongoing challenges in mitigating climate change.
- The data comes from a peer-reviewed study conducted by a collective of approximately 120 scientists, known as the Global Carbon Budget (GCB).
Global Emissions Overview
- In 2023, the largest contributors to global fossil CO2 emissions were:
- China: 31%
- United States: 13%
- India: 8%
- EU-27: 7%
- Together, these regions accounted for 59% of global emissions, with the remaining 41% attributed to other countries.
- The report indicates that by the end of 2024, emissions from coal, oil, and gas are expected to slightly surpass their 2023 levels, with increases of 0.2%, 0.9%, and 2.4%, respectively.
COP29
The 2024 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29) is currently underway in Baku, Azerbaijan, gathering nearly 200 nations to address the escalating climate crisis. The conference, which began on November 11 and will run until November 22, focuses on developing strategies to curb global warming and enhance climate finance to support developing nations.
Key Objectives of COP29
- Curbing Global Warming: The primary aim is to create a shared plan among countries to limit global temperature rise, particularly in line with the Paris Agreement’s goal of keeping warming below 1.5°C.
- Scaling Up Climate Finance: A significant focus is on mobilising financial resources to assist developing nations in mitigating and adapting to climate change impacts. This includes discussions on the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) for climate finance, which aims to exceed the previously pledged $100 billion annually from developed countries starting in 2025.
India’s Contribution
- India’s fossil-based CO2 emissions are projected to spike by 4.6% in 2024.
- This increase is particularly significant given that India’s per-capita emissions remain relatively low at 0.6 tonnes of carbon per person per year, compared to 3.9 tonnes in the U.S. and 2.3 tonnes in China.
- By the end of 2024, India is expected to emit approximately 3.2 billion tonnes of CO2, while China’s emissions will reach around 12 billion tonnes.
Obstacles to Achieving Climate Goals
- The Paris Agreement targets limiting global warming to below 2°C, with an aim of 1.5°C, yet current global efforts and voluntary Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) fall short of the 1.5°C goal.
- Structural barriers, including high infrastructure demands in rapidly developing economies, outpace renewable energy growth, increasing reliance on fossil fuels.
Climate Change Implications
- The GCB report emphasises the urgency of addressing climate change, noting that atmospheric CO2 concentrations are set to reach 422.5 ppm in 2024—an increase of 52% above pre-industrial levels.
- Professor Pierre Friedlingstein from the University of Exeter warns that “the impacts of climate change are becoming increasingly dramatic,” and stresses that global leaders must implement rapid and deep cuts to fossil fuel emissions to meet the goals outlined in the Paris Agreement.
- The report also highlights a critical point: there is a 50% chance that the remaining carbon budget—essentially the amount of carbon that can be emitted before exceeding the 1.5°C temperature rise target—will be exhausted within approximately six years.
