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Arrival of a Pakistani cargo ship in Bangladesh marks a shift in Sub-continent Geopolitics
Context:
The arrival of a Pakistani cargo ship in Bangladesh on November 13 marks a potential shift in the subcontinent’s geopolitics. This historic maritime link, the first direct trade connection between the two nations, symbolises a thaw in their strained ties.
The Current Turnaround in Bangladesh Politics:
- Regime change : Bangladesh’s political landscape shifted significantly with the ouster of pro-India Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in August 2024 and the rise of Dr. Muhammad Yunus as Chief Advisor of the Interim Government.
- Shift from Hasina’s India Centric Policy: This new leadership appears more inclined to diversify Bangladesh’s international partnerships, marking a move away from Hasina’s India-centric policies.
- Pakistan- Bangladesh direct trade link: This pivot is evidenced by the establishment of direct trade links with Pakistan, an unprecedented step since Bangladesh’s independence in 1971.
Historical Sour Relations Between Bangladesh and Pakistan – The Shadow of 1971:
Bangladesh’s relations with Pakistan have long been shaped by the traumatic events of the 1971 Liberation War. The war, which saw atrocities committed by the Pakistani military, left deep scars, including an estimated 3 million deaths and widespread displacement.
- Absence of Reconciliation: Pakistan’s failure to acknowledge its role or issue an apology for the 1971 genocide has perpetuated mistrust.
- Sheikh Hasina’s Aggressive Islamist Policies: Hasina’s tenure exacerbated the rift. Her establishment of the International Crimes Tribunal in 2010 to prosecute war criminals—many of whom were aligned with Pakistan during the war—further strained ties. Her government’s execution of pro-Pakistan Jamaat-e-Islami leaders provoked sharp responses from Islamabad.
- Hasina’s close ties with India: While Hasina fostered close ties with India, her pursuit of justice for 1971 created barriers to reconciliation with Pakistan.
Pakistan’s Narrative of the 1971 War and its Benefits for Pakistan Military:
The Pakistani military and political establishment frame the 1971 Liberation War as an Indian conspiracy to dismember Pakistan.
- Strategic Denial: This narrative absolves Pakistan of responsibility, fostering a sense of victimhood and reinforcing anti-India rhetoric.
- Military Influence: The narrative strengthens the military’s dominance in Pakistan’s domestic and foreign policy by justifying its focus on India as a perpetual threat.
- Benefits: By avoiding an apology, Pakistan maintains internal cohesion and sidesteps difficult questions about its governance and military actions during the war.
Reasons for the Current Turnaround- Pakistan’s Strategic Entry:
Pakistan has capitalised on shifting generational and political dynamics in Bangladesh:
- Generational Shift: Younger Bangladeshis, less connected to the Liberation War, prioritise economic and social issues over historical grievances.
- Anti-India Sentiment: Hasina’s perceived over-reliance on India fueled resentment among Bangladeshis. Rising nationalism and anti-India protests in 2024, including the vandalism of the Indira Gandhi Cultural Centre, signalled growing discontent.
- Pakistan’s Diplomatic Efforts: Pakistan has pursued reconciliation, leveraging Bangladesh’s changing political mood. Dr. Yunus’s openness to diversifying international ties provided Islamabad with an opportunity to establish direct trade connections and improve bilateral ties.
- Role of China:
- Beijing supports both Pakistan and Bangladesh through infrastructure investments and economic partnerships.
- Closer Bangladesh-Pakistan ties align with China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) ambitions, strengthening its influence in South Asia.
Key Impacts of the Pakistani cargo ship’s arrival in Bangladesh:
- Diplomatic Symbolism: Marks a step toward easing strained ties between Bangladesh and Pakistan, signalling pragmatic engagement despite unresolved historical tensions.
- Economic Integration: Establishes direct trade routes, boosting cost-effective commerce in textiles, pharmaceuticals, and agriculture while diversifying partnerships.
- Geopolitical Shift: Reflects Bangladesh’s balanced foreign policy approach, reducing reliance on India and engaging with Pakistan and China.
- Regional Responses: India views it cautiously; China likely supports it as part of BRI; the U.S. watches its Indo-Pacific implications.
- Domestic Impacts: Sparks debates over national identity and political shifts in Bangladesh.
Regional Impact and Challenges for India:
- Strategic Concerns: India views Bangladesh’s pivot to Pakistan as a challenge to its influence in South Asia.
- Security Implications: Closer Bangladesh-Pakistan ties, especially underpinned by Islamist narratives, may embolden anti-India groups in the region.
- China’s Influence: With both Bangladesh and Pakistan maintaining strong ties with Beijing, India risks further encirclement by China’s growing influence in its neighbourhood.
- Trade Opportunities: The direct link could unlock trade potential, particularly in textiles, agricultural goods, and pharmaceuticals.
Way Forward for India:
- Recalibrating Strategy: India must reassess its approach toward Bangladesh, addressing perceptions of overreach and promoting people-to-people ties.
- Economic Engagement: Offering enhanced trade and development cooperation can strengthen bilateral ties.
- Countering China: India needs to counterbalance China’s influence in Bangladesh by emphasising shared cultural, historical, and democratic values.
- Diplomatic Agility: Engaging with Bangladesh’s interim leadership and supporting democratic transitions will help India maintain its strategic foothold.
- The evolving dynamics underscore the need for proactive and nuanced Indian diplomacy to navigate this geopolitical shift.
