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The Growing Threat of Space Debris
Context:
On December 30, 2024, a shocking incident occurred in Makueni County, Kenya, when a 500 kg metal object fell from the sky, leaving the local community startled.
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- Experts from the Kenya Space Agency identified it as a separation ring from a space-bound rocket. This incident, while unsettling, is not unique. Previous similar cases in the US and Australia highlight a growing global concern: space debris.
- As space activity increases, the risks associated with falling debris and the lack of clear accountability present significant challenges.
What is Space Junk?
- Space junk, or space debris, refers to the multitude of non-functional human-made objects that remain in Earth’s orbit.
- This includes defunct satellites, spent rocket stages, fragments from previous collisions, and even small items like astronaut tools lost during missions.
- Anti-satellite tests (ASATs), which intentionally destroy satellites to test weapons. These events have contributed massively to debris. For example, China’s ASAT test in 2007 created nearly 3,000 fragments of debris, significantly increasing the amount of space junk in orbit.
Risks of Space Debris
- Even relatively small pieces of space debris can cause severe damage to operational satellites, spacecraft, and space stations. The potential hazards include:
- Collision impacts: A piece of debris as small as a ping-pong ball can damage a satellite or spacecraft.
- Radiation and chemical exposure: If space debris strikes a spacecraft, it can lead to the release of harmful radiation or chemicals, compromising the safety of astronauts and missions.
- Damage to critical infrastructure: Small debris objects, even a few millimetres in size, have punctured critical equipment, such as the Canadarm2 on the ISS.
- The Kessler Syndrome is a particularly concerning concept—an idea proposed in 1978 by NASA scientist Donald J. Kessler. It predicts a chain reaction where collisions between space debris create more debris, leading to even more frequent collisions.
- This phenomenon could eventually render low Earth orbit (LEO) unusable for future satellites, missions, and space exploration.
The Problem of Space Debris
- Statistics and Current Situation: As of September 2024, over 13,000 tons of space debris are in orbit, with 19,590 satellites launched since 1957.
- Around 13,230 of these are still in orbit, with 10,200 remaining operational. The International Space Station (ISS) has had to perform 39 collision avoidance manoeuvres (as of November 2024) to avoid debris.
- The UN Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS) and the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee provide working definitions, but legal disputes arise over whether a piece of debris qualifies as a “space object” under the Convention for International Liability for Damage Caused by Space Objects (1972). If debris is not considered a space object, liability becomes hard to enforce.
Legal Framework and Space Debris Liability
- The Outer Space Treaty (1967) holds states responsible for all space activities, both governmental and private.
- The 1972 Liability Convention introduced absolute liability, meaning that launching states are automatically liable for harm caused by space objects, regardless of negligence. However, enforcement remains a challenge, as disputes often depend on diplomatic negotiations rather than practical solutions.
- Example: After the Soviet satellite Cosmos 954 crashed in Canada (1978), it took years to resolve the issue, with Canada receiving only a fraction of the cleanup costs. This gap between legal liability and practical enforcement leaves affected parties vulnerable.
Challenges in Accountability and Enforcement
- Despite the legal framework, enforcing liability is problematic, as seen in the case of Cosmos 954 (1978), where Canada negotiated for years with the USSR but only recovered part of the cleanup cost. Tracking debris is difficult, especially when dealing with older or fragmented objects, complicating accountability.
- Uncontrolled re-entries are currently not penalised until damage occurs, leaving affected communities without recourse. Current voluntary guidelines (such as the 25-year deorbit rule) are under-enforced, with only 30% compliance.
The Surge in Space Activity and Associated Risks
- The rise of satellite mega-constellations, like SpaceX’s Starlink, Amazon Kuiper, and OneWeb, which aim to launch over 100,000 satellites by 2030, significantly increases the risk of space debris.
- These satellites, especially older models, often lack deorbiting plans, adding to the accumulation of debris in Earth’s orbit.
- Although small satellites typically burn up upon reentry, larger objects, like rocket boosters and fuel tanks, can survive and pose threats.
What Needs to Change?
- To address the growing issue of space debris, stronger regulations are urgently needed:
- Binding Global Regulations: The COPUOS must push for binding regulations that require controlled reentries and impose penalties for non-compliant actors. This would ensure that spacefaring countries take responsibility for the debris they generate.
- Mandatory Disposal Rules: Space agencies should be required to implement controlled reentries or shift defunct satellites to graveyard orbits to avoid collisions with active satellites. These rules must be enforced through sanctions or launch bans.
- Improved Tracking and Monitoring: Expanding systems like the US Space Fence can help track debris and predict reentries more accurately. Sustainable space practices and debris-neutral technologies should be incentivised to reduce the clutter in orbit.
- Modernising the Liability Convention: The 1972 Liability Convention should be updated to create an independent international tribunal with the power to enforce liability decisions and provide an effective resolution mechanism for disputes related to space debris.
