South Asia in a Changing World: Challenges and Opportunities in 2025

The Rise of a Multipolar World

For much of the post-World War II period, the world was divided between two superpowers—the United States and the Soviet Union. The end of the Cold War led to a brief unipolar moment where the United States emerged as the dominant global power. However, recent developments indicate a transition towards a multipolar order where power is distributed among several influential nations.

China’s rapid economic and military growth has positioned it as a major global player, particularly in South Asia, where its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has increased its influence. India, too, is asserting its role as a regional power, while Russia seeks to strengthen its geopolitical position, particularly in response to Western sanctions and conflicts in Europe. Other nations, such as Brazil and Turkey, are also becoming more assertive in global affairs.

This shift from unipolarity to multipolarity has created a complex balance of power. Unlike during the Cold War, where alliances were clearly defined, today’s geopolitical landscape is more fluid, with countries forming partnerships based on shared economic and strategic interests rather than ideological affiliations. This has implications for South Asia, where regional actors must navigate relationships with multiple global powers while maintaining their own sovereignty.

The Impact of Trump’s Return on South Asia

The re-election of Donald Trump in 2025 has introduced new uncertainties into global geopolitics. His approach to international relations is transactional, meaning that alliances and partnerships are based on immediate benefits rather than long-term commitments. This has raised concerns among traditional US allies, including those in South Asia.

One of the most significant areas of concern is US foreign aid. The Trump administration has reduced funding for international development programmes, affecting countries like Nepal, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka that rely on financial assistance for economic stability and infrastructure projects. His administration has also pressured nations to align with US interests, particularly in countering China’s growing influence in the region.

In India, while the US-India strategic partnership remains strong, there are uncertainties about trade relations. Trump’s focus on reducing trade deficits and increasing American manufacturing could lead to higher tariffs on Indian goods, affecting key industries such as pharmaceuticals and information technology. Moreover, his stance on immigration could impact the mobility of Indian professionals seeking employment in the US.

Pakistan, meanwhile, faces an unpredictable relationship with the US. Although Trump has shown interest in counterterrorism cooperation, past tensions over military aid and Pakistan’s ties with China continue to complicate relations. Bangladesh, heavily dependent on exports to the US market, is also vulnerable to shifts in American trade policy.

China’s Expanding Influence in South Asia

China’s presence in South Asia has grown significantly over the past decade, particularly through its infrastructure investments under the BRI. Countries such as Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Nepal, and Bangladesh have received substantial Chinese loans for the development of roads, ports, and energy projects. However, this increasing dependence on Chinese funding has raised concerns about debt sustainability and strategic vulnerabilities.

For India, China’s influence poses a strategic challenge. The two nations have a history of border disputes, and their competition for influence in South Asia has intensified. China’s support for Pakistan, including military assistance and investment in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), is a major concern for Indian policymakers.

Despite these tensions, India and China recognise the importance of economic cooperation. Trade between the two countries continues to grow, and there are areas where collaboration is possible, such as climate change, regional security, and counterterrorism efforts. The challenge for India is to engage with China in a way that protects its strategic interests while benefiting from economic opportunities.

The Fragmentation of Globalisation and Its Effects

For decades, globalisation was seen as a driver of economic growth and international cooperation. However, recent trends suggest a shift towards protectionism and economic nationalism. Trade wars, supply chain disruptions, and rising inequality have led many nations to prioritise domestic economic policies over global integration.

The COVID-19 pandemic exposed vulnerabilities in global supply chains, leading to a push for self-reliance in critical sectors such as healthcare and technology. The war in Ukraine and subsequent disruptions in energy and food markets further highlighted the risks of economic interdependence. As a result, many countries, including those in South Asia, are reassessing their economic strategies.

India’s “Atmanirbhar Bharat” (self-reliant India) initiative reflects this trend, focusing on reducing dependence on foreign imports and strengthening domestic manufacturing. Similarly, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Pakistan are exploring ways to diversify their economies and reduce reliance on external markets.

While economic nationalism can help protect domestic industries, it also risks limiting trade opportunities and foreign investment. South Asian nations must strike a balance between self-sufficiency and global engagement to ensure sustainable economic growth.

Nationalism and Civilisational Identity in Geopolitics

Another significant trend shaping global politics is the resurgence of nationalism and the emphasis on civilisational identity. Countries are increasingly defining their foreign policies based on historical and cultural narratives.

In India, the concept of “civilisational nationalism” has gained prominence, influencing its geopolitical outlook. This is reflected in efforts to strengthen ties with culturally similar nations and promote regional initiatives based on shared heritage. Similarly, China, Russia, and Turkey are framing their global ambitions within the context of their historical legacies.

While nationalism can foster unity and pride, it also has the potential to increase tensions and conflicts. In South Asia, nationalistic sentiments have contributed to strained relations between India and Pakistan, as well as political tensions in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. Regional leaders must navigate these dynamics carefully to prevent conflicts while promoting cooperation.

Regional Cooperation and Future Prospects

Despite the challenges, there are opportunities for South Asian countries to enhance regional cooperation. An organisation such as the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) offer platforms for collaboration on trade, security, and environmental issues.

Climate change is one area where regional cooperation is essential. South Asia is highly vulnerable to rising sea levels, extreme weather events, and water shortages. Joint efforts in disaster preparedness, renewable energy development, and sustainable agriculture can help mitigate these risks.

Additionally, technological advancements present opportunities for economic growth. Digital connectivity, artificial intelligence, and green technologies can drive development and create new job opportunities. By investing in education and innovation, South Asian nations can position themselves as global leaders in the digital economy.

Conclusion

Subscribe to our Youtube Channel for more Valuable Content – TheStudyias

Download the App to Subscribe to our Courses – Thestudyias

The Source’s Authority and Ownership of the Article is Claimed By THE STUDY IAS BY MANIKANT SINGH