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New Method to Predict Amplitude of Upcoming Solar Cycle Enhances Space Weather Forecasting
Context:
- Astronomers have identified a new correlation using 100 years of solar data from the Kodaikanal Solar Observatory.
- This discovery aids in predicting the strength of upcoming solar cycle maxima and improves space weather forecasting.
Key Highlights:
- Forecasting methods include dynamo models, extrapolations, and precursor methods. The precursor method uses certain solar activity measures to predict the next solar maximum’s strength.
- Polar magnetic field strength, indicated by polar faculae, is a common precursor for predicting solar activity.
- The study revealed a strong positive correlation between the width of supergranular lanes at mid-latitudes during sunspot cycle minima and the amplitude of the following sunspot cycle.
New Method Using Supergranular Cells:
- Researchers from the Indian Institute of Astrophysics (IIA), Bengaluru, have found that the width of supergranular cells on the Sun’s surface during solar minima correlates with sunspot numbers in the subsequent maximum.
- The study used solar chromospheric images at a wavelength of 393.3 nm from the Ca-K ion, taken by the observatory’s telescope.
- Supergranulations are large convective cells on the Sun, about 30,000 km in size with 5,000 km thick borders.
Implications:
- The new method allows for predicting the strength of the next solar cycle about 4-5 years in advance.
- The study’s results enhance space weather prediction and understanding of solar irradiance variations.
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Understanding Space Weather and Solar Cycles
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