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UN World Population Prospects 2024
Context:
India’s population is projected to reach 1.61 billion by 2085, surpassing China’s declining population of 806 million.
More in News:
- The latest UN population report highlights global demographic shifts with rapid declines in fertility rates, potentially leading to a population decline by the century’s end.
- Over 60 countries, including China, Italy, and Japan, have already peaked in population, impacting social, economic, and environmental landscapes globally.
- India becoming the world’s most populous country since 2022, alongside China’s declining population, highlights significant demographic changes.
About UN World Population Prospects:
- Released biennially, it provides authoritative estimates and projections on global population trends.
- The 2024 Revision of World Population Prospects is the twenty-eighth edition by the UN Population Division.
- It offers population estimates and projections from 1950 to 2100 for 237 countries or areas worldwide.
- Based on 1,910 national censuses, vital registration systems, and 3,189 nationally representative surveys.
Key Findings of the Recent Report:
- Global Demographic Trends:
- Fertility rates worldwide are declining faster than previously expected, potentially leading to a global population decline by the end of the century.
- More than half of all countries now have fertility rates below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman.
- The world population is projected to peak in 2084, while the world’s fertility rate is projected to decline below the population replacement level in the early 2050s.
Population Growth and Peak:
- The world population is projected to increase from 8.2 billion in 2024 to nearly 10.3 billion by mid-century before stabilising and slightly declining to 10.2 billion by 2100.
- Over 60 countries, including major nations like China, Italy, and Japan, have already peaked in population size.
Regional Dynamics:
- India, with a population of 1.4 billion, surpassed China as the world’s most populous country in 2022 and is expected to continue growing through mid-century.
- China is experiencing significant population decline due to a rapid decrease in birth rates.
Impact of Immigration:
- Countries like the United States are projected to maintain population growth primarily due to immigration, growing from 345 million in 2024 to 421 million by 2100.
Regional Growth Patterns:
- Countries in Africa, including Angola, Congo, and Nigeria, are expected to experience rapid population growth, potentially doubling in size between 2024 and 2054.
Environmental and Social Implications:
- Increasing global population and aging demographics pose challenges for consumption, resource availability, and climate change resilience.
- Despite population growth, demographic shifts may not necessarily accelerate climate change, with the fastest-growing regions historically contributing less to global warming.
Life Expectancy and Aging Population:
- Global life expectancy rebounded to 73.2 years in 2023, projected to reach 81.7 years by 2100.
- Ageing populations are expected to outnumber children under 18 by 2080, reflecting longer life expectancies and declining birth rates.