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India’s new trilemma: Kids, Jobs & Emigration
What is Demographic Dividend?
- The term coined by Harvard economist David Bloom, refers to economic growth potential when a country has a high proportion of its population in the working-age group (15-64 years).
- India’s Position: India currently has the highest proportion of people in the 15-64 age group in the world, suggesting a potential for significant economic growth.
- India’s Young Population: younger generation choosing not to have children on India’s “demographic dividend.”
- Millennials are justified in choosing not to have children and seeking opportunities abroad given India’s current economic and social realities.
Historical Context of Population Control:
- 1970s Perspective: In the 1970s, it was believed that India’s economic problems were due to high population growth rates.
- The government conducted mass vasectomy camps, sterilising 1.3 million men in 1971 with a target of 3.1 million by the next year.
- International Pressure: The World Bank provided $66 million in aid for sterilisation programs, and US President Lyndon B. Johnson pressured India to adopt sterilisation as state policy.
- Paul Ehrlich’s book “The Population Bomb” predicted mass starvation and increased death rates, influencing the population control movement.
Malthusian Theory of Population Growth:
- Thomas Robert Malthus was a prominent British economist and philosopher.
- He is best known for his theory on population growth, articulated in his 1798 publication, An Essay on the Principle of Population.
- Population vs. Food Supply: Malthus argued that populations tend to grow until they exceed the capacity of their food supply, leading to a natural correction through disease, famine, war, or calamity.
- Malthusian Growth Model: This model projects that population growth occurs exponentially, whereas food supply increases arithmetically. This imbalance inevitably results in societal crises such as disease, famine, and war.
- Modern Rejection: theory is now largely dismissed because modern agricultural techniques have allowed food production to scale much faster than he anticipated.
High Competition for Higher Education in India
- Intense Competition: Over a million applicants vie for 10,000 seats at IITs, similar numbers for 80,000 medical college seats, and 250,000 for 4,000 IIM seats.
⇔ Past vs. Present: In 1969, competition was lower, with 30,000 applicants for 100 seats at IIM Calcutta.
- Cultural Impact: Films like Kota highlight the pressure and resonate with audiences.
- Study Abroad: Nearly 750,000 Indian students study abroad annually, often funded by wealthy parents.
- Meritocratic System: India has extensive merit-based selection processes.
- Tutorial Colleges: Entrance exams are supported by numerous tutorial colleges, often funded by significant bank loans from parents.
- Corruption: Corruption in exams, such as the National Eligibility Entrance Test, has been exposed.
Indian Success Abroad and Factors Influencing Migration:
- Global Leadership: Many Indian-origin, Indian-educated individuals hold top positions in major global companies, such as:
〈Satya Nadella at Microsoft, Sunder Pichai at Google, Vasant Narasimhan at Novartis, Arvind Krishna at IBM, Laxman Narasimhan at Starbucks.〉
- Foreign Remittances: Indians abroad sent $125 billion in remittances last year, almost 60% of the earnings from India’s software services.
- Family-Owned Firms: Many large Indian companies are family-owned, reserving top management positions for family members.
- High Real Estate Prices: The high cost of real estate in Indian metro cities, particularly Bombay, poses challenges compared to Indian salaries.
Population Control Programmes in other Countries:
- Thailand: The government launched a population programme to improve access to contraception, healthcare, education, and female empowerment.
- Rwanda: 1994 Genocide: The genocide led to significant social and demographic upheaval.
⇒ Sustainable Development Policy In 2003, Improvement in Contraceptive Use among married women rose from 17% to 64%.
- Costa Rica: Linking Population and Environment, The government and local churches promoted family planning through mass communication, home visits, and accessible contraceptives.
- China: One-child policy, official program initiated in the late 1970s and early ’80s by the central government of China
