Navigating Power Asymmetries: India’s Geopolitical Strategy
India’s evolving role on the global stage is shaped by complex relationships with key powers such as China, Russia, and the United States. These relationships, marked by economic, military, and strategic factors, create significant challenges as India navigates its position as a rising global power. This essay, based on Amit Kumar’s Text & Context article titled “Power Asymmetry Between China and Russia” in The Hindu (September 18, 2024) and ex-Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran’s Op-ed article captioned “Challenges for a Transitioning Power” in Business Standard (September 18, 2024), explores the intricacies of India’s geopolitical situation, focusing on the power asymmetry between China and Russia, India’s relationship with the US, and the implications these dynamics have for India’s foreign policy
India’s connections with important countries like China, Russia, and the United States play a big role in shaping its changing place in the world. As India tries to find its way as a growing global power, it faces many challenges because of these relationships, which involve things like trade, military strength, and strategies. This essay looks at the complicated situation India is in, focusing on the power differences between China and Russia, the gap between India’s own abilities and its rising global importance, its relationship with the United States, and how all these things affect India’s decisions in foreign affairs.
Power Asymmetry Between China and Russia: Implications for India
Recently, there have been reports about India, China, and Russia getting closer for the upcoming BRICS Summit in Russia, and military tensions between India and China in Ladakh have eased. Many people on Indian social media are excited, thinking that Russia might help India if there is ever a future conflict with China. However, Amit Kumar, a columnist for The Hindu, disagrees. He believes that Russia would not have the freedom to choose India over China because of the large gap in economic power between Russia and China.
The economic relationship between China and Russia is one of increasing imbalance, with China’s economy nearly ten times larger than Russia’s. This disparity is reflected in their trade relations, where Russia’s dependence on China has deepened significantly. In 2023, the bilateral trade between these nations reached a record $240 billion, but the relationship remains highly asymmetrical. China accounted for 36% of Russia’s imports, while Russia only represented 3% of China’s. Moreover, over 70% of Russia’s exports to China were energy-related, indicating Russia’s vulnerability to fluctuations in energy markets.
This growing power asymmetry has important implications for India, which has traditionally maintained close ties with Russia. The widening gap in the China-Russia relationship means that Russia’s ability to resist pressure from China is diminishing. If Russia is forced to align more closely with China due to economic necessity, its autonomy in dealing with India could be compromised. As China’s strategic partnership with Russia deepens, India may find itself in a precarious position, especially in instances where Indian and Chinese interests conflict.
One critical implication of this power imbalance is Russia’s decreasing ability to act independently of China in international affairs. For instance, Russia’s capacity to support India in its border disputes with China, or to balance its relations between India and China, may become increasingly constrained. This poses a risk to India’s foreign policy objectives, particularly in maintaining its strategic autonomy.
India’s Geopolitical Balancing Act: Managing Relationships with the US and China
India’s relationship with the United States is a crucial aspect of its foreign policy, especially in the context of counterbalancing China’s growing influence. However, India’s strategic autonomy — the principle that allows it to engage with multiple power blocs without being locked into any one alliance — complicates its relationship with the US.
The upcoming BRICS summit (October 22-24, 2024), alongside Prime Minister Modi’s scheduled visit (September 21-23, 2024) to the US, presents a unique opportunity for India to recalibrate its relationships with global powers. Modi’s visit is expected to address several issues that have caused underlying tensions between the US and India, including concerns about democratic backsliding and India’s engagement with US adversaries like Russia and China. The implications of these meetings are significant for India’s future trajectory, as they will help determine how India balances its growing partnerships with China and Russia against its strategic partnership with the US.
India’s desire to maintain strong ties with the US is also motivated by its Indo-Pacific strategy, which seeks to counterbalance China’s influence in the region. However, India must be cautious not to alienate its longstanding partners, particularly Russia. Russia’s dependence on China means that any alignment India makes with the US or Western powers could further strain its relationship with Russia, potentially pushing Russia even closer to China.
Shyam Saran offers a nuanced perspective on this delicate balancing act. He underscores that India’s growing proximity to the US, while strategic, could exacerbate tensions with Russia. As a result, India needs to engage in a more complex dance, leveraging its growing relationships with both the US and Russia without entirely siding with either. This balancing act will be particularly crucial as the geopolitical landscape continues to evolve rapidly.
Implications for India’s Strategic Autonomy
The concept of strategic autonomy has been a cornerstone of India’s foreign policy for decades. This policy allows India to engage with multiple power blocs, including the US-led Quad (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue) and China/Russia-led groups like BRICS and SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation), without fully aligning with any one bloc. However, the growing economic and military power asymmetry between China and Russia as aforementioned, presents new challenges for India’s ability to maintain this autonomy. This imbalance might restrict India’s diplomatic options and force it to adapt to a global order where Russia’s influence is secondary to China’s. Maintaining strategic autonomy in such a scenario will require India to remain flexible and resourceful in its international engagements, effectively using both soft power and hard power to protect its interests.
Economic and Domestic Realities: A Constraint on India’s Global Aspirations
While India is often portrayed as a rising global power, there is a significant gap between its international aspirations and its domestic capabilities. Shyam Saran highlights this disparity, noting that while India’s global profile is rising, its domestic economic and technological foundations remain insufficient to fully support its global ambitions.
India’s economic growth trajectory is promising, but there are still significant challenges to address. These include improving infrastructure, reducing poverty, and building a stronger manufacturing base. Without these domestic improvements, India’s ability to project power on the global stage will remain constrained. This reality has important implications for India’s foreign policy, particularly in terms of shaping global governance on issues like climate change, trade, and finance.
While India has gained global recognition, its ability to shape international norms and institutions remains limited. For instance, India’s ambivalence toward organisations like the SCO, which is viewed by China and Russia as a counterweight to US dominance, highlights the ongoing tension between India’s global aspirations and its strategic autonomy. This ambivalence is further reflected in India’s need to maintain its strategic partnerships without being seen as aligning too closely with any single power bloc.
India’s Role in Global Governance: Balancing Aspirations with Realities
Despite the challenges it faces, India continues to play a key role in global governance, particularly through its participation in multilateral organisations like BRICS. The recent détente between China and India, facilitated by Russia, suggests that there is potential for closer cooperation between these powers. However, this cooperation must be approached cautiously, given the growing power disparity between China and Russia, and the potential for China to dominate these alliances.
India’s approach to global governance will likely continue to be shaped by its desire to maintain strategic autonomy. This means engaging with both Western and non-Western powers while ensuring that its own interests are safeguarded. As Shyam Saran points out, India’s global profile is growing, but its ability to shape global institutions remains limited by its domestic challenges. Addressing these internal issues will be crucial for India to fully leverage its global standing and influence.
India’s Soft Power and Diplomatic Agility
While there are limitations of India’s hard power, its soft power has played an essential role in elevating its global profile. India’s cultural influence, diaspora networks, and democratic credentials significantly contribute to its standing on the world stage. Furthermore, India has demonstrated remarkable diplomatic agility, often managing to navigate complex geopolitical issues and punch above its weight in international forums.
This soft power influence, alongside India’s increasing economic potential, gives it a unique advantage in global affairs. India’s robust participation in international organisations, from the United Nations to G20 and other multilateral or trilateral organisations, further underscores its diplomatic versatility. The importance of this diplomatic agility cannot be gainsaid even as India grapples with its domestic and economic challenges.
Conclusion: Navigating the Future of India’s Foreign Policy
India’s rise as a global power is marked by both opportunities and challenges. The growing power asymmetry between China and Russia, India’s strategic balancing act with the US, and the constraints imposed by its domestic realities all have significant implications for the future of India’s foreign policy. This analysis provides a sobering reality check amidst narratives of India’s ascendancy, emphasising the need for a careful, balanced approach to foreign policy.
To navigate these challenges, India must continue to focus on strengthening its domestic economy, improving technological capabilities, and maintaining its strategic autonomy. By doing so, India can position itself as a key player in the evolving global order while ensuring that it is not overly dependent on any one power bloc. In the long run, India’s success as a global power will depend on its ability to balance its global aspirations with its domestic realities. This means not only engaging with major powers like the US, China, and Russia but also building a strong domestic foundation that can support its ambitions on the world stage. The gist is: India’s global influence is growing but it must not only address its internal economic and technological shortcomings but keep it in mind as it seeks to sustain its global rise through diplomatic agility.
