Russia’s Strategic Pivot to Asia: The Emerging India Partnership
This essay, inspired by Ivan Shchedrov’s article “Russia’s Geopolitical Pivot to Asia, a New India Chapter” (The Hindu, September 28, 2024), explores Russia’s pivot to Asia, with a particular focus on its growing ties with India. The essay argues that this shift is a strategic response to Western sanctions and shifting global dynamics. However, for this partnership to reach its full potential, challenges such as economic policies, sanctions, and logistical issues must be addressed to ensure a deeper impact on both bilateral relations and the broader geopolitical landscape.
Introduction
In response to the Ukraine conflict and subsequent Western sanctions, Russia has been forced to reassess its global partnerships and economic strategies. A key element of this reassessment has been Russia’s strategic pivot towards Asia, particularly strengthening ties with India. This shift reflects Russia’s need to seek alternative markets, reduce dependency on the West, and navigate the complexities of a changing global order. India, historically a significant partner of Russia, has emerged as a crucial player in this evolving geopolitical landscape. While the relationship between Russia and India has long been rooted in defence and energy cooperation, recent developments have deepened these ties across multiple sectors. Nonetheless, the partnership faces several challenges, including logistical, economic, and geopolitical obstacles. This essay examines the drivers, key developments, challenges, and future prospects of Russia’s pivot to Asia, with a particular focus on India.
Historical Context of Russia’s Pivot
The seeds of Russia’s pivot to Asia were sown during the financial crisis of 2007-08 when vulnerabilities in Russia’s dependence on Western markets became apparent. However, it was the Ukraine conflict in 2022 that catalysed a full-scale reorientation of Russian foreign policy. Western sanctions severely affected Russia’s economy, revealing the risks of relying heavily on Europe for trade and investment. In response, Russia sought to expand partnerships in Asia, where rapidly growing economies such as China and India provided promising alternatives.
India, with its long-standing commitment to strategic autonomy, was a natural partner in this reorientation. By refusing to align with Western sanctions against Russia, India signalled its interest in maintaining a balanced foreign policy, thus becoming a key player in Russia’s new Asian strategy. The mutual desire to resist Western dominance in global governance structures further solidified the relationship, allowing both countries to pursue economic and geopolitical goals without being overly reliant on Western powers.
Strategic and Economic Drivers of the Russia-India Relationship
Russia’s pivot to India is driven by the need to mitigate the impact of Western sanctions and maintain its global influence. India offers Russia an opportunity to diversify its partnerships, reducing its dependence on China, with whom Russia shares complex economic ties. Strengthening ties with India allows Russia to balance its position within Asia while maintaining a foothold in global politics.
For India, the partnership with Russia is equally strategic. India is a fast-growing economy with rising energy demands, and Russia’s vast oil and gas reserves provide a reliable and affordable source of energy. Moreover, India’s defence needs are also well-served by its relationship with Russia, which has long been one of India’s primary suppliers of military hardware. By maintaining robust ties with Russia, India is able to safeguard its strategic autonomy, avoiding over-reliance on either the West or China.
Key Developments in Russia-India Relations
One of the most significant developments in recent years has been the sharp increase in bilateral trade between Russia and India. The Ukraine conflict and the resulting sanctions on Russia opened new avenues for trade, particularly in energy. By May 2024, bilateral trade between the two countries had surged to $7.5 billion per month, a significant increase from $3.5 billion in June 2022. This increase was largely driven by India’s purchase of Russian oil at discounted rates, allowing Russia to offset the impact of Western sanctions on its energy sector.
Defence cooperation remains another key area of the Russia-India partnership. India continues to rely heavily on Russia for military equipment, including advanced systems such as the S-400 air defence system. The two countries are also exploring joint ventures in defence manufacturing under India’s “Make in India” initiative, which aims to reduce dependency on foreign imports while fostering domestic production.
Furthermore, Russia and India have set ambitious targets for future trade, with a goal of reaching $100 billion in bilateral trade by 2030. This target underscores both countries’ commitment to deepening their economic relationship. In addition to energy and defence, Russia is looking to diversify its exports to India by expanding into sectors such as agricultural machinery, medical equipment, and construction materials. India, on the other hand, has begun filling the void left by Western companies that have withdrawn from the Russian market, exporting smartphones, digital processing units, and other goods to Russia.
Challenges and Obstacles
Despite the progress made in recent years, the Russia-India partnership faces several significant challenges. One of the primary obstacles is the differing economic policies of both nations. Russia’s “technological nationalism” and India’s “Make in India” initiative are both designed to promote domestic production, but they can also create barriers to expanding trade. For example, the lack of economic complementarity between the two nations has made it difficult to fully realise the potential of their trade relationship.
Sanctions imposed by the West also continue to pose a challenge. These sanctions have made financial transactions and investments between Russia and India more complicated, particularly for small and medium enterprises. The lack of a stable payment mechanism and logistical challenges, such as the absence of shared borders, further complicate trade expansion.
Moreover, India’s growing ties with Russia have drawn scrutiny from its Western allies, particularly the United States and European nations. As India continues to deepen its partnership with Russia, it must carefully navigate these external pressures to maintain strategic autonomy without alienating either side.
External Pressures and India’s Balancing Act
India faces the delicate task of balancing its relationship with Russia while maintaining strong ties with the West, particularly in areas like defence, technology, and the Indo-Pacific strategy aimed at countering China’s influence.
Ajit Doval’s 2024 visit to Russia exemplifies India’s balancing act. Doval’s participation in the BRICS-NSA meeting and discussions with Russian President Vladimir Putin reinforced India’s stance as a mediator in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Doval’s mission was to convey a peace proposal from Prime Minister Narendra Modi, advocating for dialogue and diplomacy over military solutions. This approach allows India to maintain favourable relations with Russia, including access to discounted oil, while addressing Western concerns through peace mediation efforts.
India’s growing defence and energy cooperation with Russia remains vital to its domestic economic and security needs. However, India is equally mindful of its expanding partnership with the United States, particularly in areas like defence technology and the Indo-Pacific region. This dual-track approach allows India to navigate the complex geopolitical landscape while maintaining its long-term interests.
Doval’s visit also facilitated discussions with China’s National Security Advisor, underscoring India’s pragmatic approach to diplomacy. With rising tensions along the India-China border, India seeks to manage its relationship with China while securing its regional security interests through multilateral platforms like BRICS.
Future Prospects and Opportunities
Despite the challenges, the future of Russia-India relations looks promising, with numerous opportunities for enhanced cooperation. Defence collaboration will remain a cornerstone of their relationship. India has been one of Russia’s largest defence customers, and this partnership is expected to continue, particularly in joint production, technology transfers, and the modernisation of defence systems. Russia’s competitive pricing in defence equipment, such as fighter jets, submarines, and missile systems, ensures its continued market share in India. Moreover, India aims to reduce its dependence on imports by co-developing and co-producing defence equipment with Russian companies, aligning with its “Make in India” initiative to foster self-reliance in defence production.
Beyond defence, technology and digital cooperation present significant growth areas. India’s expertise in digital technologies, software development, and cybersecurity complements Russia’s strengths in fundamental sciences and engineering. Both nations can collaborate in fields like artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning, quantum computing, and cybersecurity, particularly as global cyber threats escalate. Space technology also holds great potential for collaboration, with both countries exploring joint ventures in satellite technology and space exploration.
In the energy sector, while oil trade currently dominates the relationship, there are opportunities for diversification. Russia has been a long-standing partner in India’s civil nuclear program, and cooperation in nuclear energy remains strong. Both nations are also interested in expanding renewable energy cooperation, including projects in solar, wind, and hydropower. Joint exploration of energy resources in third countries, such as Central Asia and the Arctic, offers additional avenues for collaboration.
Education, research, and scientific exchange are also promising areas for deeper cooperation. Both countries aim to enhance academic exchanges, particularly in STEM fields, biotechnology, and pharmaceuticals. These initiatives could drive innovation and foster the next generation of scientists, engineers, and leaders in both nations.
Conclusion
Russia’s strategic pivot to Asia, particularly its deepening partnership with India, represents a significant realignment in global geopolitics. The rapid growth in their bilateral relationship, driven by mutual economic and strategic interests, has the potential to reshape the geopolitical landscape. However, the partnership faces significant challenges, including logistical issues, sanctions, and external pressures from the West. The future trajectory of Russia-India relations will depend on both countries’ ability to navigate these challenges and build a more resilient and diversified partnership. If successful, the deepening of their relationship could contribute to the emergence of a multipolar world, reducing reliance on Western markets and reshaping global economic and political dynamics.